Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Steelers (97%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Steelers (-9.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (67%) · Browns at 2.8¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Browns
3
Browns 67%
2 arb excluded
$7.2K
$6.35
Research grade
AvoidBrowns at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Steelers 97%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Brownsavg 35.2¢ | $4.4K | $3.8K | -$570.48 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
| └ Browns leg | Brownsavg 35.2¢ | $3.5K | $2.6K | -$866.39 | |
| └ Steelers leg | Steelersavg 55¢ | $879.73 | $1.2K | +$295.91 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Brownsavg 38.3¢ | $3.8K | $3.3K | -$453.41 | 55% 3014-2443 (5457) |
| └ Browns leg | Brownsavg 38.3¢ | $2.7K | $1.9K | -$823.41 | |
| └ Steelers leg | Steelersavg 55¢ | $1.1K | $1.5K | +$370 | |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Brownsavg 48¢ | $26.76 | $30.66 | +$3.9 | 59% 46944-33223 (80167) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Steelersavg 43.3¢ | $26.87 | $30.07 | +$3.2 | 53% 11037-9631 (20668) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Brownsavg 60¢ | $9 | $8.25 | -$0.75 | 56% 14257-11059 (25316) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$4,383.39
Value
$3.8K
PnL
-$570.48
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Both legs:
Invested
$3,775.08
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$453.41
Record
55%
3014-2443 (5457)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.76
Value
$30.66
PnL
+$3.9
Record
59%
46944-33223 (80167)
Invested
$26.87
Value
$30.07
PnL
+$3.2
Record
53%
11037-9631 (20668)
Invested
$9
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$0.75
Record
56%
14257-11059 (25316)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.