Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (20%) · Browns at 53¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Browns
5
Browns 20%
$18.4K
-$0.46
Research grade
NeutralBrowns at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xaBea08725590a4C6Ae7c8E63214C9628BbC772AE-1781431873018 | Brownsavg 52¢ | $9.6K | $9.4K | -$184.04 | 44% 81-103 (184) |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR | Steelersavg 48¢ | $8.5K | $8.7K | +$177.55 | 46% 403-472 (875) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Steelersavg 48¢ | $274.8 | $280.53 | +$5.72 | 50% 32601-32144 (64745) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Steelersavg 47¢ | $28.76 | $29.06 | +$0.31 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
SL slimjoeCTR<$100 | Steelersavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $4.9 | +$0 | 51% 6431-6105 (12536) |
Invested
$9,570.12
Value
$9.4K
PnL
-$184.04
Record
44%
81-103 (184)
Invested
$8,522.16
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$177.55
Record
46%
403-472 (875)
Invested
$274.8
Value
$280.53
PnL
+$5.72
Record
50%
32601-32144 (64745)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$28.76
Value
$29.06
PnL
+$0.31
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
6431-6105 (12536)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.