Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Steelers (78%). 10 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Steelers (-2.5)

10 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (91%) · Browns at 22¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1

Steelers78¢Browns22¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 91%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

40¢ → 22¢

-45% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Steelers 78%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Steelers78%

Browns22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,635

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Steelers1 trader

Total Value$42.6

Total Shares71

Combined PnL+$0

Browns — 91%Steelers — 9%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrowns 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Brownsavg 40¢	$1,000	$537.5	-$462.5	46% 1131-1309 (2440)
VeryLucky888CTR	Brownsavg 39.5¢	$1.0K	$332.5	-$263.02	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Brownsavg 41¢	$277.97	$271.19	-$3.39	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Brownsavg 40¢	$436	$234.35	-$201.65	62% 4201-2576 (6777)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Brownsavg 40.4¢	$238.47	$126.76	-$111.71	54% 3405-2950 (6355)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Steelersavg 60¢	$42.6	$42.6	+$0	50% 7127-7172 (14299)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Brownsavg 39¢	$43.68	$24.08	-$19.6	55% 7319-5884 (13203)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Brownsavg 40¢	$13.6	$7.31	-$6.29	54% 3099-2669 (5768)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Brownsavg 39¢	$12.79	$7.05	-$5.74	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Brownsavg 40¢	$12	$6.45	-$5.55	51% 1532-1483 (3015)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Brownsavg 41¢	$9.2	$4.82	-$4.38	53% 11037-9631 (20668)

primmCTR

Browns

Invested

$1,000

Value

$537.5

PnL

-$462.5

Record

46%

1131-1309 (2440)

VeryLucky888CTR

Browns

Invested

$1,042.09

Value

$332.5

PnL

-$263.02

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Browns

Invested

$277.97

Value

$271.19

PnL

-$3.39

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

SunlineTickerCTR

Browns

Invested

$436

Value

$234.35

PnL

-$201.65

Record

62%

4201-2576 (6777)

HerdoniaCTR

Browns

Invested

$238.47

Value

$126.76

PnL

-$111.71

Record

54%

3405-2950 (6355)

Forecastication2<$100

Steelers

Invested

$42.6

Value

$42.6

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$43.68

Value

$24.08

PnL

-$19.6

Record

55%

7319-5884 (13203)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$13.6

Value

$7.31

PnL

-$6.29

Record

54%

3099-2669 (5768)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$12.79

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$5.74

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$12

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$5.55

Record

51%

1532-1483 (3015)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$9.2

Value

$4.82

PnL

-$4.38

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

10 of 11 top traders (91%)Underdog side (market favors Steelers 78%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 61%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

88% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrowns 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.