Spread: Browns (-3.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Steelers (100%) · Steelers at 76¢ · $31K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Steelers
5
Steelers 100%
$31.1K
-$206.18
76¢ → 75.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSteelers at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Steelers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Steelersavg 76¢ | $14.2K | $14.1K | -$92.77 | 54% 17200-14430 (31630) |
HI hi774c | Steelersavg 76¢ | $8.8K | $8.7K | -$57.93 | 52% 4749-4468 (9217) |
 VeryLucky888 | Steelersavg 76¢ | $7.6K | $7.6K | -$50.27 | 58% 42202-30652 (72854) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Steelersavg 76¢ | $760 | $755 | -$5 | 53% 5653-4991 (10644) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Steelersavg 76¢ | $31.92 | $31.71 | -$0.21 | 58% 28900-21323 (50223) |
Invested
$14,150.15
Value
$14.1K
PnL
-$92.77
Record
54%
17200-14430 (31630)
Invested
$8,805.58
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$57.93
Record
52%
4749-4468 (9217)
VeryLucky888Invested
$7,603.33
Value
$7.6K
PnL
-$50.27
Record
58%
42202-30652 (72854)
Invested
$760
Value
$755
PnL
-$5
Record
53%
5653-4991 (10644)
Invested
$31.92
Value
$31.71
PnL
-$0.21
Record
58%
28900-21323 (50223)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.