Browns vs. Steelers
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Steelers (83%) · Steelers at 65¢ · $42K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Steelers
6
Steelers 83%
$41.9K
-$118.65
64.7¢ → 64.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSteelers at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PW Pwaddler | Steelersavg 65¢ | $29.6K | $29.3K | -$227.39 | 48% 408-447 (855) |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | Steelersavg 64¢ | $13.2K | $8.5K | +$65.98 | 46% 403-472 (875) |
MA MAGATheeStallion | Steelersavg 64¢ | $3.1K | $2.0K | +$15.63 | 58% 239-173 (412) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Brownsavg 35¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$27.85 | 58% 40444-29225 (69669) |
 heyboy800<$100 | Steelersavg 65¢ | $97.5 | $96.75 | -$0.75 | 61% 873-551 (1424) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Steelersavg 63¢ | $1.7 | $1.73 | +$0.03 | 65% 1650-894 (2544) |
Invested
$29,560.38
Value
$29.3K
PnL
-$227.39
Record
48%
408-447 (855)
Invested
$13,193.17
Value
$8.5K
PnL
+$65.98
Record
46%
403-472 (875)
Invested
$3,125
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$15.63
Record
58%
239-173 (412)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,949.77
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$27.85
Record
58%
40444-29225 (69669)
heyboy800<$100Invested
$97.5
Value
$96.75
PnL
-$0.75
Record
61%
873-551 (1424)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$1.73
PnL
+$0.03
Record
65%
1650-894 (2544)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.