Spread: Saints (-6.5)

9 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (64%) · Browns at 66¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 8

Saints34¢Browns66¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 64%

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

-$804.79

Smart Money Entry

60.7¢ → 66¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Saints34%

Browns66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns9 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares15,315

Combined PnL-$591.76

Saints5 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares7,048

Combined PnL-$213.03

Browns — 64%Saints — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrowns 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Brownsavg 60.7¢	$2.6K	$3.2K	-$603.97	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
RN1	Brownsavg 55.1¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$184.6	53% 70182-61748 (131930)
HO HomeRunHazard	Brownsavg 60¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$67.39	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
38 38791873984189	Brownsavg 63.9¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	-$28.26	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
GL glennyorkshire	Brownsavg 66.5¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$50.85	46% 232-268 (500)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Saintsavg 45¢	$1.3K	$1.1K	-$180.96	47% 2072-2311 (4383)
PR primmCTR	Saintsavg 46¢	$1.1K	$957.88	-$186.6	46% 1426-1652 (3078)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Saintsavg 29.7¢	$500.47	$656.37	+$155.9	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
65 6512395314597884	Brownsavg 68.6¢	$452.67	$402.23	-$50.44	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Brownsavg 50¢	$91.75	$108	+$16.25	56% 195-151 (346)
PA Pan9X<$100	Brownsavg 55.2¢	$85.73	$57.57	+$4.64	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Brownsavg 55¢	$33.55	$37.21	+$3.66	53% 13661-12046 (25707)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Saintsavg 45¢	$26.73	$22.87	-$3.86	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
PW PwaddlerCTR<$100	Saintsavg 40¢	$13.26	$15.75	+$2.49	49% 493-509 (1002)

SunlineTicker

Browns

Invested

$2,587.89

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$603.97

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

RN1

Browns

Invested

$1,591.52

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$184.6

Record

53%

70182-61748 (131930)

HomeRunHazard

Browns

Invested

$1,756.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$67.39

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

38791873984189

Browns

Invested

$2,112.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$28.26

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

glennyorkshire

Browns

Invested

$1,127.12

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$50.85

Record

46%

232-268 (500)

MadridTimeCTR

Saints

Invested

$1,252.8

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$180.96

Record

47%

2072-2311 (4383)

primmCTR

Saints

Invested

$1,144.48

Value

$957.88

PnL

-$186.6

Record

46%

1426-1652 (3078)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Saints

Invested

$500.47

Value

$656.37

PnL

+$155.9

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

6512395314597884

Browns

Invested

$452.67

Value

$402.23

PnL

-$50.44

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Browns

Invested

$91.75

Value

$108

PnL

+$16.25

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Pan9X<$100

Browns

Invested

$85.73

Value

$57.57

PnL

+$4.64

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

justaluckydude<$100

Browns

Invested

$33.55

Value

$37.21

PnL

+$3.66

Record

53%

13661-12046 (25707)

VenusianCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$26.73

Value

$22.87

PnL

-$3.86

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

PwaddlerCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$13.26

Value

$15.75

PnL

+$2.49

Record

49%

493-509 (1002)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

9 of 14 top traders (64%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-16 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBrowns 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.1%

66.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$46.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

146.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.