Spread: Saints (-5.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (58%) · Browns at 56¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8

Saints44¢Browns56¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 58%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.1K

Smart Money Entry

52.1¢ → 56.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints44%

Browns56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Browns7 traders

Total Value$8.8K

Total Shares16,982

Combined PnL-$313.16

Saints5 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares13,422

Combined PnL-$831.38

Browns — 58%Saints — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBrowns 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BR BreakTheBank	Brownsavg 50¢	$6.5K	$6.3K	-$193.56	41% 643-941 (1584)
VE VenusianCTR	Saintsavg 50¢	$6.5K	$5.7K	-$839.19	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Saintsavg 43.7¢	$2.1K	$2.5K	+$464.41	54% 5360-4574 (9934)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 43.7¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$561.59
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 57¢	$650.27	$553.09	-$97.18
38 38791873984189	Brownsavg 57¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$1.97	48% 70249-75962 (146211)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Brownsavg 68¢	$623.6	$508.85	-$114.75	50% 5197-5095 (10292)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Brownsavg 67.1¢	$277.44	$299.87	+$22.43	51% 5657-5508 (11165)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 32¢	$128	$174	+$46
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 67.1¢	$149.44	$125.87	-$23.57
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Brownsavg 50¢	$216	$216	+$0	56% 195-151 (346)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50¢	$100	$116	-$5
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 50¢	$100	$100	+$5
AN Anon455	Brownsavg 49¢	$98	$113	+$15	54% 3933-3292 (7225)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Saintsavg 48¢	$85.66	$77.63	-$8.03	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Saintsavg 45¢	$52.46	$73.45	+$20.99	49% 2142-2260 (4402)
RL RLWG<$100	Brownsavg 57¢	$80.63	$59.38	-$21.25	49% 8555-8731 (17286)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Saintsavg 48¢	$46.08	$41.76	-$4.32	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
PA Pan9X<$100	Brownsavg 57¢	$26.8	$10.07	+$3.08	52% 27203-24713 (51916)
GH ghorrock<$100	Brownsavg 49¢	$7.04	$7.32	+$0.28	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Saintsavg 49¢	$7.29	$6.47	-$0.82	54% 19973-16852 (36825)

BreakTheBank

Browns

Invested

$6,451.95

Value

$6.3K

PnL

-$193.56

Record

41%

643-941 (1584)

VenusianCTR

Saints

Invested

$6,491.19

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$839.19

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$2,083.28

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$464.41

Record

54%

5360-4574 (9934)

Both legs:

Saints$1,693.8743.7¢+$561.59

Browns$650.2757¢-$97.18

38791873984189

Browns

Invested

$2,146.67

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$1.97

Record

48%

70249-75962 (146211)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Browns

Invested

$623.6

Value

$508.85

PnL

-$114.75

Record

50%

5197-5095 (10292)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$277.44

Value

$299.87

PnL

+$22.43

Record

51%

5657-5508 (11165)

Both legs:

Saints$12832¢+$46

Browns$149.4467.1¢-$23.57

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$216

Value

$216

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

195-151 (346)

Both legs:

Invested

$98

Value

$113

PnL

+$15

Record

54%

3933-3292 (7225)

GC-PCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$85.66

Value

$77.63

PnL

-$8.03

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

LimousinCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$52.46

Value

$73.45

PnL

+$20.99

Record

49%

2142-2260 (4402)

RLWG<$100

Browns

Invested

$80.63

Value

$59.38

PnL

-$21.25

Record

49%

8555-8731 (17286)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$46.08

Value

$41.76

PnL

-$4.32

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

Pan9X<$100

Browns

Invested

$26.8

Value

$10.07

PnL

+$3.08

Record

52%

27203-24713 (51916)

ghorrock<$100

Browns

Invested

$7.04

Value

$7.32

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$7.29

Value

$6.47

PnL

-$0.82

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 56%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Browns

7 of 12 top traders (58%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-35 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrBrowns 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Saints 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.7%

56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$70.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

170.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.