Spread: Saints (-3.5)

3 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (15%) · Saints at 51¢ · $143K held · ends Nov 8

Saints51¢Browns49¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 15%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$143.1K

Combined PnL

$651.97

Smart Money Entry

49.8¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

3 of 20 top traders (15%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints51%

Browns50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints3 traders

Total Value$73.4K

Total Shares145,203

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Browns17 traders

Total Value$63.1K

Total Shares126,303

Combined PnL-$406.34

Saints — 15%Browns — 85%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Saintsavg 49.7¢	$54.7K	$55.6K	+$883.95	51% 233-227 (460)
SI Siddhartha1	Saintsavg 50¢	$17.4K	$17.6K	+$174.37	49% 64-67 (131)
GM gmpm2CTR	Brownsavg 51¢	$13.8K	$14.0K	+$135.75	53% 372-326 (698)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Brownsavg 50¢	$12.1K	$11.9K	-$120.64	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Brownsavg 49.5¢	$11.7K	$11.7K	-$8.55	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR	Brownsavg 50.6¢	$7.3K	$7.1K	-$159.76	49% 797-827 (1624)
VeryLucky888CTR	Brownsavg 50.3¢	$5.5K	$5.2K	-$71.54	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
SP SPLPBARB<$100	Saintsavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$0	24% 806-2607 (3413)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$17.61
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$17.61
HI hi774cCTR	Brownsavg 50¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	-$34.88	46% 5332-6170 (11502)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Brownsavg 49.9¢	$3.3K	$3.0K	+$0.04	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 49.9¢	$2.4K	$2.3K	-$19.19
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 49.1¢	$654.26	$672.75	+$19.23
BA Bagwell306CTR	Brownsavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$24.99	57% 4284-3214 (7498)
nigiri99CTR	Brownsavg 50¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$23.01	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Brownsavg 51¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$64.28	64% 2043-1136 (3179)
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR	Brownsavg 50¢	$3.2K	$1.6K	-$16	22% 1839-6343 (8182)
NM NM-PCTR	Brownsavg 50¢	$500	$495	-$5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Brownsavg 50¢	$386.06	$382.42	-$3.64	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Brownsavg 51¢	$210.53	$204.34	-$6.19	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Saintsavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
0xheavy888CTR	Brownsavg 50.5¢	$113.12	$110.88	-$2.24	56% 8260-6557 (14817)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Brownsavg 54¢	$21.6	$20.6	-$1	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Brownsavg 50.4¢	$20.65	$20.29	-$0.36	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Brownsavg 50¢	$7.5	$7.48	-$0.02	50% 8443-8488 (16931)

Kch-Temp

Saints

Invested

$54,731.25

Value

$55.6K

PnL

+$883.95

Record

51%

233-227 (460)

Siddhartha1

Saints

Invested

$17,437

Value

$17.6K

PnL

+$174.37

Record

49%

64-67 (131)

gmpm2CTR

Browns

Invested

$13,846.49

Value

$14.0K

PnL

+$135.75

Record

53%

372-326 (698)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Browns

Invested

$12,063.5

Value

$11.9K

PnL

-$120.64

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Browns

Invested

$11,731.66

Value

$11.7K

PnL

-$8.55

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

0x16bb9951a36fce71e2ef57890b786145e0ba8492CTR

Browns

Invested

$7,298.11

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$159.76

Record

49%

797-827 (1624)

VeryLucky888CTR

Browns

Invested

$5,481.7

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$71.54

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

SPLPBARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$3,522

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

24%

806-2607 (3413)

Both legs:

Saints$1,76150¢+$17.61

Browns$1,76150¢-$17.61

hi774cCTR

Browns

Invested

$3,488.37

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$34.88

Record

46%

5332-6170 (11502)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$3,341.82

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$0.04

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Both legs:

Browns$2,366.1449.9¢-$19.19

Saints$654.2649.1¢+$19.23

Bagwell306CTR

Browns

Invested

$2,499.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$24.99

Record

57%

4284-3214 (7498)

nigiri99CTR

Browns

Invested

$2,300.5

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$23.01

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

darkumbreon88CTR

Browns

Invested

$2,185.36

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$64.28

Record

64%

2043-1136 (3179)

0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468FCTR

Browns

Invested

$3,200

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$16

Record

22%

1839-6343 (8182)

NM-PCTR

Browns

Invested

$500

Value

$495

PnL

-$5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Browns

Invested

$386.06

Value

$382.42

PnL

-$3.64

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

SnakeBallCTR

Browns

Invested

$210.53

Value

$204.34

PnL

-$6.19

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Saints

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

0xheavy888CTR

Browns

Invested

$113.12

Value

$110.88

PnL

-$2.24

Record

56%

8260-6557 (14817)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$21.6

Value

$20.6

PnL

-$1

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$20.65

Value

$20.29

PnL

-$0.36

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

RLWGCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Saints

3 of 20 top traders (15%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed17 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.