Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Saints (56%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Saints (-2.5)
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (33%) · Browns at 45¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 8
⚖️
Neutral
Browns
6
Browns 33%
1 arb excluded
$5.3K
$217
54.6¢ → 44.5¢
-19% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralBrowns at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Saints 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
30h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PW PwaddlerCTR | Brownsavg 55.4¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$50.87 | 48% 434-464 (898) |
HE Herdonia | Saintsavg 45.9¢ | $499.13 | $603.16 | +$104.03 | 51% 3584-3513 (7097) |
SN SnakeBall | Saintsavg 45.4¢ | $409.18 | $499.94 | +$90.76 | 50% 36455-35915 (72370) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Brownsavg 45¢ | $382.5 | $416.75 | +$34.25 | 40% 1398-2089 (3487) |
| └ Browns leg | Brownsavg 45¢ | $225 | $222.5 | -$2.5 | |
| └ Saints leg | Saintsavg 45¢ | $157.5 | $194.25 | +$36.75 | |
BO BoomLaLa | Saintsavg 45.7¢ | $342.5 | $416.25 | -$1.25 | 54% 11950-10370 (22320) |
38 38791873984189 | Saintsavg 47.2¢ | $416.21 | $403.77 | -$12.44 | 48% 59434-63450 (122884) |
BA Bagwell306CTR | Brownsavg 47¢ | $281.58 | $266.6 | -$14.98 | 57% 4173-3145 (7318) |
Invested
$2,660.88
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$50.87
Record
48%
434-464 (898)
Invested
$499.13
Value
$603.16
PnL
+$104.03
Record
51%
3584-3513 (7097)
Invested
$409.18
Value
$499.94
PnL
+$90.76
Record
50%
36455-35915 (72370)
Invested
$382.5
Value
$416.75
PnL
+$34.25
Record
40%
1398-2089 (3487)
Both legs:
Invested
$342.5
Value
$416.25
PnL
-$1.25
Record
54%
11950-10370 (22320)
Invested
$416.21
Value
$403.77
PnL
-$12.44
Record
48%
59434-63450 (122884)
Invested
$281.58
Value
$266.6
PnL
-$14.98
Record
57%
4173-3145 (7318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.