Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Browns, while the market favors Saints (72%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Saints (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (67%) · Browns at 28¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 8

Saints72¢Browns28¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.9K

Combined PnL

-$341.79

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 28.5¢

-33% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Saints 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints72%

Browns28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares6,407

Combined PnL+$245.5

Browns6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares11,529

Combined PnL-$587.29

Saints — 33%Browns — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrBrowns 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Brownsavg 51¢	$7.1K	$7.2K	-$963.79	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 56¢	$3.3K	$3.7K	+$298.12
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 51¢	$4.8K	$3.5K	$-1.3K
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Saintsavg 60¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$20.12	55% 3404-2735 (6139)
38 38791873984189CTR	Brownsavg 42.3¢	$172.24	$2.0K	-$120.33	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
SU SunlineTicker	Saintsavg 62¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$221.07	54% 5358-4572 (9930)
IC ic4creamCTR	Brownsavg 44¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$115.74	56% 2872-2262 (5134)
AN Anon455CTR	Brownsavg 39¢	$780	$710	-$70	55% 3933-3280 (7213)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Saintsavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	56% 193-149 (342)
└ Saints leg	Saintsavg 50¢	$100	$121	+$19
└ Browns leg	Brownsavg 50¢	$100	$79	-$19
VeryLucky888CTR	Brownsavg 49.8¢	$1.8K	$166.2	-$262.64	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Brownsavg 40¢	$160	$142	-$18	51% 2075-2021 (4096)
HE Herdonia<$100	Saintsavg 52¢	$30.46	$34.78	+$4.31	50% 4153-4222 (8375)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Brownsavg 39.5¢	$15.09	$14.52	-$0.57	52% 27099-24604 (51703)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Browns

Invested

$7,115.98

Value

$7.2K

PnL

-$963.79

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Both legs:

Saints$3,304.5256¢+$298.12

Browns$4,804.0151¢$-1.3K

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Saints

Invested

$2,413.8

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$20.12

Record

55%

3404-2735 (6139)

38791873984189CTR

Browns

Invested

$172.24

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$120.33

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

SunlineTicker

Saints

Invested

$1,442.74

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$221.07

Record

54%

5358-4572 (9930)

ic4creamCTR

Browns

Invested

$1,422.01

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$115.74

Record

56%

2872-2262 (5134)

Anon455CTR

Browns

Invested

$780

Value

$710

PnL

-$70

Record

55%

3933-3280 (7213)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Saints

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

193-149 (342)

Both legs:

Invested

$1,826.62

Value

$166.2

PnL

-$262.64

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Browns

Invested

$160

Value

$142

PnL

-$18

Record

51%

2075-2021 (4096)

Herdonia<$100

Saints

Invested

$30.46

Value

$34.78

PnL

+$4.31

Record

50%

4153-4222 (8375)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Browns

Invested

$15.09

Value

$14.52

PnL

-$0.57

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

Research grade

AvoidBrowns at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Saints 72%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

98h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Browns. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSaints 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrBrowns 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedBrowns 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Browns 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.