Spread: Saints (-10.5)

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Browns (69%) · Browns at 74¢ · $56K held · ends Nov 8

Saints27¢Browns73¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Browns

Consensus Traders

Browns 69%

Total Value

$55.9K

Combined PnL

$834.89

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 73.5¢

-3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saints27%

Browns74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints4 traders

Total Value$16.4K

Total Shares61,201

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Browns9 traders

Total Value$39.5K

Total Shares50,314

Combined PnL-$265.46

Saints — 31%Browns — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Saintsavg 24.7¢	$14.5K	$15.6K	+$1.1K	50% 549-553 (1102)
HO HomeRunHazard	Brownsavg 76.1¢	$11.8K	$11.6K	+$95.61	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
VeryLucky888	Brownsavg 75.7¢	$11.3K	$11.0K	-$325	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Brownsavg 76¢	$7.8K	$8.0K	+$153.98	50% 2796-2767 (5563)
BA Bagwell306	Brownsavg 75¢	$7.5K	$7.3K	-$149.98	57% 4284-3214 (7498)
PL pltrkr111	Brownsavg 75¢	$1,000	$980	-$20	55% 790-658 (1448)
PU purplegattoCTR	Saintsavg 25¢	$563.37	$597.17	+$33.8	49% 6418-6597 (13015)
SE sentrio	Brownsavg 75¢	$371.69	$364.25	-$7.43	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Saintsavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
38 38791873984189	Brownsavg 80¢	$309.89	$133.81	-$12.88	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
NM NM-P<$100	Brownsavg 75¢	$57.59	$57.98	+$0.38	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
nigiri99<$100	Brownsavg 76¢	$22.04	$21.9	-$0.14	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Saintsavg 21.4¢	$7.92	$4.95	+$0.63	54% 10485-8797 (19282)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Saints

Invested

$14,496.27

Value

$15.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

549-553 (1102)

HomeRunHazard

Browns

Invested

$11,789.45

Value

$11.6K

PnL

+$95.61

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

VeryLucky888

Browns

Invested

$11,350

Value

$11.0K

PnL

-$325

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Browns

Invested

$7,801.47

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$153.98

Record

50%

2796-2767 (5563)

Bagwell306

Browns

Invested

$7,499.24

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$149.98

Record

57%

4284-3214 (7498)

pltrkr111

Browns

Invested

$1,000

Value

$980

PnL

-$20

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

purplegattoCTR

Saints

Invested

$563.37

Value

$597.17

PnL

+$33.8

Record

49%

6418-6597 (13015)

sentrio

Browns

Invested

$371.69

Value

$364.25

PnL

-$7.43

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Saints

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

38791873984189

Browns

Invested

$309.89

Value

$133.81

PnL

-$12.88

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

NM-P<$100

Browns

Invested

$57.59

Value

$57.98

PnL

+$0.38

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

nigiri99<$100

Browns

Invested

$22.04

Value

$21.9

PnL

-$0.14

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Saints

Invested

$7.92

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.63

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

Research grade

NeutralBrowns at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Browns

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Browns wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.