Bengals vs. Falcons: O/U 52.5

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 51¢ · $101K held · ends Nov 8

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$101.3K

Combined PnL

$596.15

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 50.5¢

+1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$53.2K

Total Shares105,146

Combined PnL+$787.36

Under8 traders

Total Value$45.3K

Total Shares91,186

Combined PnL-$191.2

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

85h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PW Pwaddler	Overavg 51.7¢	$24.7K	$24.2K	-$590.04	49% 456-483 (939)
MO monkeymashingkeyboardCTR	Underavg 51.7¢	$21.7K	$20.6K	-$929.49	53% 667-585 (1252)
scootergene	Overavg 48¢	$16.3K	$17.2K	+$851.21	53% 384-336 (720)
TH THEdirkdigglerCTR	Underavg 49¢	$11.8K	$11.8K	+$120.02	50% 299-299 (598)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 47.5¢	$10.0K	$10.4K	+$605.11	54% 18469-15536 (34005)
HE Herdonia	Overavg 48.7¢	$8.7K	$9.0K	+$443.52	51% 3847-3765 (7612)
BA Bagwell306ARB<$100	Overavg 49.7¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$84.44	57% 4276-3204 (7480)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$45.03
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$39.41
IC ic4cream	Overavg 49.7¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	+$68.63	56% 2788-2199 (4987)
CUTJALENHURTSCTR	Underavg 49.6¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$3.52	52% 6167-5786 (11953)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 49¢	$435.72	$441.16	+$9.14	51% 38177-37419 (75596)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	Underavg 49.2¢	$291.94	$290.65	+$6.12	47% 530-607 (1137)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283	Overavg 48.7¢	$243.62	$252.37	+$12.49	51% 364-346 (710)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Underavg 49¢	$122.5	$122.5	+$1.25	53% 12582-11279 (23861)
NM NM-P	Overavg 50¢	$109.37	$110.46	+$1.09	64% 10175-5710 (15885)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 50.5¢	$86.21	$87	+$0.78	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$16.33	$16.33	+$0.17	58% 21660-15754 (37414)
RL RLWG<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$16.52	$16.19	-$0.33	50% 8428-8461 (16889)

Pwaddler

Over

Invested

$24,749.92

Value

$24.2K

PnL

-$590.04

Record

49%

456-483 (939)

monkeymashingkeyboardCTR

Under

Invested

$21,724.7

Value

$20.6K

PnL

-$929.49

Record

53%

667-585 (1252)

scootergene

Over

Invested

$16,342.53

Value

$17.2K

PnL

+$851.21

Record

53%

384-336 (720)

THEdirkdigglerCTR

Under

Invested

$11,761.9

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$120.02

Record

50%

299-299 (598)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$10,048.6

Value

$10.4K

PnL

+$605.11

Record

54%

18469-15536 (34005)

Herdonia

Over

Invested

$8,721.41

Value

$9.0K

PnL

+$443.52

Record

51%

3847-3765 (7612)

Bagwell306ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,754.38

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$84.44

Record

57%

4276-3204 (7480)

Both legs:

Over$1,493.2249.7¢+$45.03

Under$1,261.1648¢+$39.41

ic4cream

Over

Invested

$2,276.05

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$68.63

Record

56%

2788-2199 (4987)

CUTJALENHURTSCTR

Under

Invested

$1,778.31

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$3.52

Record

52%

6167-5786 (11953)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$435.72

Value

$441.16

PnL

+$9.14

Record

51%

38177-37419 (75596)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

Under

Invested

$291.94

Value

$290.65

PnL

+$6.12

Record

47%

530-607 (1137)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283

Over

Invested

$243.62

Value

$252.37

PnL

+$12.49

Record

51%

364-346 (710)

BoomLaLaCTR

Under

Invested

$122.5

Value

$122.5

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

12582-11279 (23861)

NM-P

Over

Invested

$109.37

Value

$110.46

PnL

+$1.09

Record

64%

10175-5710 (15885)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$86.21

Value

$87

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.33

Value

$16.33

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

21660-15754 (37414)

RLWG<$100

Over

Invested

$16.52

Value

$16.19

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

8428-8461 (16889)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 16 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Late

85h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 9

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.