Spread: Bengals (-5.5)

4 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (27%) · Bengals at 79¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 8

Bengals79¢Falcons21¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

-$276.93

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 78.5¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

4 of 15 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Bengals79%

Falcons22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals4 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares13,834

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Falcons11 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares18,351

Combined PnL$-3.3K

Bengals — 27%Falcons — 73%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Bengalsavg 63¢	$6.6K	$8.7K	+$2.0K	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bengalsavg 50.6¢	$1.6K	$2.6K	+$980.82	50% 4741-4676 (9417)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Falconsavg 37.8¢	$3.2K	$2.2K	-$945.02	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100	Falconsavg 59.7¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$17.32	60% 4654-3069 (7723)
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 59.7¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$17.32
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 42¢	$702.24	$702.24	+$0
AN Anon455CTR	Falconsavg 54¢	$2.1K	$1.1K	$-1.1K	55% 3814-3145 (6959)
GC GC-PCTR	Falconsavg 58¢	$443.04	$439.22	-$3.82	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
RN1CTR	Falconsavg 37¢	$889	$420.71	-$468.29	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189CTR	Falconsavg 56.4¢	$1.0K	$318.33	-$697.82	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
NM NM-PCTR	Falconsavg 57.5¢	$295.47	$298.04	+$2.57	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles	Bengalsavg 50¢	$400	$200	+$0	— 1-0 (1)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Falconsavg 37¢	$103.37	$50.29	-$53.08	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Falconsavg 58¢	$31.9	$31.62	-$0.27	50% 8443-8488 (16931)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Falconsavg 51.3¢	$56.97	$29.42	-$27.55	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Falconsavg 45¢	$26.74	$15.75	-$10.99	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Falconsavg 45¢	$26.74	$15.75	-$10.99	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Bengalsavg 39¢	$1.92	$2.02	+$0.1	54% 18557-15589 (34146)

CUTJALENHURTS

Bengals

Invested

$6,619.7

Value

$8.7K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bengals

Invested

$1,578.7

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$980.82

Record

50%

4741-4676 (9417)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Falcons

Invested

$3,161.21

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$945.02

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

SunlineTickerARB<$100

Falcons

Invested

$1,736.69

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$17.32

Record

60%

4654-3069 (7723)

Both legs:

Falcons$1,034.4559.7¢-$17.32

Bengals$702.2442¢+$0

Anon455CTR

Falcons

Invested

$2,144.41

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

55%

3814-3145 (6959)

GC-PCTR

Falcons

Invested

$443.04

Value

$439.22

PnL

-$3.82

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

RN1CTR

Falcons

Invested

$889

Value

$420.71

PnL

-$468.29

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189CTR

Falcons

Invested

$1,033.75

Value

$318.33

PnL

-$697.82

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

NM-PCTR

Falcons

Invested

$295.47

Value

$298.04

PnL

+$2.57

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Bengals

Invested

$400

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

—

1-0 (1)

6512395314597884CTR

Falcons

Invested

$103.37

Value

$50.29

PnL

-$53.08

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

RLWGCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$31.9

Value

$31.62

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

8443-8488 (16931)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$56.97

Value

$29.42

PnL

-$27.55

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$26.74

Value

$15.75

PnL

-$10.99

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

VenusianCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$26.74

Value

$15.75

PnL

-$10.99

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Bengals

Invested

$1.92

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 79%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

4 of 15 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.