Spread: Bengals (-3.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Falcons (50%) · Falcons at 54¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 8

Bengals47¢Falcons53¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falcons

Consensus Traders

Falcons 50%

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$3.72

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 53.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals47%

Falcons54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falcons6 traders

Total Value$10.6K

Total Shares19,825

Combined PnL-$53.11

Bengals6 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares12,378

Combined PnL+$56.83

Falcons — 50%Bengals — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bengals) and the top 1000 (4 on Falcons) disagree here.

whaleFalcons 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedBengals 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 75% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WO wollao	Falconsavg 54¢	$7.9K	$7.9K	-$73.57	48% 20-22 (42)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bengalsavg 46¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$52.32	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319	Falconsavg 53¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$16.66	55% 3129-2517 (5646)
EdZachary	Falconsavg 53¢	$628.52	$634.45	+$5.93	43% 118-156 (274)
nigiri99CTR	Bengalsavg 47¢	$323.36	$319.92	-$3.44	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bengalsavg 46¢	$261.75	$264.59	+$2.85	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
NM NM-PCTR	Bengalsavg 46¢	$230	$232.5	+$2.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
GC GC-PCTR	Bengalsavg 46¢	$229.97	$232.47	+$2.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
HE Herdonia	Falconsavg 54¢	$223.57	$221.4	-$2.17	51% 3851-3766 (7617)
0X 0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100	Falconsavg 53¢	$49.07	$49.54	+$0.46	46% 931-1099 (2030)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Falconsavg 54¢	$45.96	$45.53	-$0.43	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
BA bands1CTR<$100	Bengalsavg 46¢	$9.11	$9.21	+$0.1	50% 423-431 (854)

wollao

Falcons

Invested

$7,945.85

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$73.57

Record

48%

20-22 (42)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bengals

Invested

$4,728.28

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$52.32

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319

Falcons

Invested

$1,766.49

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$16.66

Record

55%

3129-2517 (5646)

EdZachary

Falcons

Invested

$628.52

Value

$634.45

PnL

+$5.93

Record

43%

118-156 (274)

nigiri99CTR

Bengals

Invested

$323.36

Value

$319.92

PnL

-$3.44

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

38791873984189CTR

Bengals

Invested

$261.75

Value

$264.59

PnL

+$2.85

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

NM-PCTR

Bengals

Invested

$230

Value

$232.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

GC-PCTR

Bengals

Invested

$229.97

Value

$232.47

PnL

+$2.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

Herdonia

Falcons

Invested

$223.57

Value

$221.4

PnL

-$2.17

Record

51%

3851-3766 (7617)

0x1ba747eaed3e0e798922523dbed29693bcf767a1<$100

Falcons

Invested

$49.07

Value

$49.54

PnL

+$0.46

Record

46%

931-1099 (2030)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Falcons

Invested

$45.96

Value

$45.53

PnL

-$0.43

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

bands1CTR<$100

Bengals

Invested

$9.11

Value

$9.21

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

423-431 (854)

Research grade

NeutralFalcons at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Falcons

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bengals) and the top 1000 (4 on Falcons) disagree here.

whaleFalcons 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpFalcons 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrFalcons 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedBengals 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Falcons 75% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falcons wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.