Bengals vs. Falcons

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Bengals (67%) · Bengals at 62¢ · $977 held · ends Nov 8

Bengals62¢Falcons38¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bengals

Consensus Traders

Bengals 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$976.62

Combined PnL

$12.92

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 61.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bengals62%

Falcons39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bengals6 traders

Total Value$609.19

Total Shares991

Combined PnL+$2.71

Falcons3 traders

Total Value$182.13

Total Shares463

Combined PnL+$10.22

Bengals — 67%Falcons — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Falcons) and the top 1000 (7 on Bengals) disagree here.

whaleBengals 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBengals 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBengals 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bengals 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN AnonymousUsername	Bengalsavg 61¢	$205.61	$205.61	+$0	69% 7209-3190 (10399)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Bengalsavg 60¢	$183.59	$185.29	+$2.6	51% 3806-3729 (7535)
└ Bengals leg	Bengalsavg 60¢	$115.04	$116.91	+$1.87
└ Falcons leg	Falconsavg 38.1¢	$68.55	$68.39	+$0.74
65 6512395314597884	Bengalsavg 61¢	$160.73	$160.73	+$1.32	51% 4769-4631 (9400)
38 38791873984189CTR	Falconsavg 37.9¢	$145.67	$120.83	+$1.17	48% 61202-65997 (127199)
DA darkumbreon88	Bengalsavg 60.8¢	$115.37	$115.82	+$0.45	64% 1961-1092 (3053)
BA bands1<$100	Bengalsavg 61¢	$93.94	$94.71	+$0.77	49% 413-426 (839)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Falconsavg 39.7¢	$55.06	$52.68	-$0.69	50% 21194-21457 (42651)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Bengalsavg 61¢	$18.29	$18.29	+$0	48% 7398-7930 (15328)
PA Pan9X<$100	Bengalsavg 61¢	$10.1	$14.04	+$0.17	54% 9741-8133 (17874)
VeryLucky888CTR	Falconsavg 38.8¢	$466.44	$8.61	+$9.74	58% 46712-33673 (80385)

AnonymousUsername

Bengals

Invested

$205.61

Value

$205.61

PnL

+$0

Record

69%

7209-3190 (10399)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Bengals

Invested

$183.59

Value

$185.29

PnL

+$2.6

Record

51%

3806-3729 (7535)

Both legs:

Bengals$115.0460¢+$1.87

Falcons$68.5538.1¢+$0.74

6512395314597884

Bengals

Invested

$160.73

Value

$160.73

PnL

+$1.32

Record

51%

4769-4631 (9400)

38791873984189CTR

Falcons

Invested

$145.67

Value

$120.83

PnL

+$1.17

Record

48%

61202-65997 (127199)

darkumbreon88

Bengals

Invested

$115.37

Value

$115.82

PnL

+$0.45

Record

64%

1961-1092 (3053)

bands1<$100

Bengals

Invested

$93.94

Value

$94.71

PnL

+$0.77

Record

49%

413-426 (839)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Falcons

Invested

$55.06

Value

$52.68

PnL

-$0.69

Record

50%

21194-21457 (42651)

Oddstorm<$100

Bengals

Invested

$18.29

Value

$18.29

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

7398-7930 (15328)

Pan9X<$100

Bengals

Invested

$10.1

Value

$14.04

PnL

+$0.17

Record

54%

9741-8133 (17874)

VeryLucky888CTR

Falcons

Invested

$466.44

Value

$8.61

PnL

+$9.74

Record

58%

46712-33673 (80385)

Research grade

NeutralBengals at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bengals

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Bengals. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Falcons) and the top 1000 (7 on Bengals) disagree here.

whaleBengals 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpBengals 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrBengals 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedFalcons 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bengals 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bengals wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.