Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (75%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Bears vs. Seahawks: O/U 48.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (90%) · Over at 26¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 3

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 90%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$645.69

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 25.5¢

-40% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares7,961

Combined PnL-$748.19

Under1 trader

Total Value$372.49

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$102.5

Over — 90%Under — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 42¢	$735.72	$805.79	+$70.07	58% 43898-31943 (75841)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 42¢	$983	$715.65	-$267.35	54% 17545-14744 (32289)
DR Dreamwire	Underavg 54¢	$269.99	$372.49	+$102.5	82% 2840-616 (3456)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 42¢	$472.5	$343.13	-$129.38	56% 7503-6007 (13510)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 42¢	$518.94	$319.64	-$199.29	55% 3200-2598 (5798)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 41.4¢	$303.16	$186.62	-$116.54	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
RN1CTR	Overavg 46¢	$230	$152.5	-$77.5	54% 58447-50668 (109115)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$63.68	$46.24	-$17.44	49% 13651-14457 (28108)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$28.38	$30.36	+$1.98	50% 4047-4019 (8066)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$33.73	$20.98	-$12.75	51% 4308-4133 (8441)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$735.72

Value

$805.79

PnL

+$70.07

Record

58%

43898-31943 (75841)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$983

Value

$715.65

PnL

-$267.35

Record

54%

17545-14744 (32289)

Dreamwire

Under

Invested

$269.99

Value

$372.49

PnL

+$102.5

Record

82%

2840-616 (3456)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$472.5

Value

$343.13

PnL

-$129.38

Record

56%

7503-6007 (13510)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$518.94

Value

$319.64

PnL

-$199.29

Record

55%

3200-2598 (5798)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$303.16

Value

$186.62

PnL

-$116.54

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$230

Value

$152.5

PnL

-$77.5

Record

54%

58447-50668 (109115)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.68

Value

$46.24

PnL

-$17.44

Record

49%

13651-14457 (28108)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.38

Value

$30.36

PnL

+$1.98

Record

50%

4047-4019 (8066)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.73

Value

$20.98

PnL

-$12.75

Record

51%

4308-4133 (8441)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 75%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 51%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 51% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 4

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.