Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bears vs. Seahawks: O/U 46.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 49¢ · $12K held · ends Nov 3

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

Total Value

$11.7K

Combined PnL

-$44.64

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 48.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$11.4K

Total Shares23,344

Combined PnL-$57.58

Under3 traders

Total Value$310.29

Total Shares545

Combined PnL+$12.94

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 49¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	-$66.64	54% 17504-14709 (32213)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$0	54% 3475-3012 (6487)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Overavg 48.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$6.77	72% 6934-2737 (9671)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48.5¢	$779.73	$787.02	+$7.29	47% 12949-14528 (27477)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 49¢	$490	$490	-$5	58% 43585-31701 (75286)
OD Oddstorm	Underavg 49¢	$274.04	$286.21	+$7.18	48% 7155-7605 (14760)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$47.53	$47.53	+$0	49% 13477-14173 (27650)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 49¢	$17.79	$18.88	+$0.91	58% 29905-21963 (51868)
KE kenneth43-133<$100	Underavg 2¢	$0.35	$5.2	+$4.85	69% 63-28 (91)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,531

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$66.64

Record

54%

17504-14709 (32213)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$1,966.84

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

3475-3012 (6487)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Over

Invested

$1,609.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$6.77

Record

72%

6934-2737 (9671)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$779.73

Value

$787.02

PnL

+$7.29

Record

47%

12949-14528 (27477)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$490

Value

$490

PnL

-$5

Record

58%

43585-31701 (75286)

Oddstorm

Under

Invested

$274.04

Value

$286.21

PnL

+$7.18

Record

48%

7155-7605 (14760)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$47.53

Value

$47.53

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

13477-14173 (27650)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$17.79

Value

$18.88

PnL

+$0.91

Record

58%

29905-21963 (51868)

kenneth43-133<$100

Under

Invested

$0.35

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$4.85

Record

69%

63-28 (91)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.