Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (60%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bears vs. Seahawks: O/U 44.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 40¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 3

Over40¢Under60¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.6K

Combined PnL

-$61.91

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 40¢

-17% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over40%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares8,119

Combined PnL+$961.51

Over7 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares14,346

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 48.4¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$707.75	50% 4090-4030 (8120)
RN1CTR	Overavg 45.2¢	$3.3K	$3.1K	-$233.74	54% 58447-50668 (109115)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 52.2¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$35.78	55% 3200-2598 (5798)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.1¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$348.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.2¢	$1.4K	$979.98	-$384.42
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 52¢	$1.5K	$1.0K	-$405.2	54% 626-537 (1163)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 50.6¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$363.42	51% 4308-4133 (8441)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Underavg 47¢	$750	$925.53	+$175.53	46% 392-455 (847)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 56¢	$586.32	$596.79	+$10.47	56% 7503-6007 (13510)
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 44¢	$476.52	$552.33	+$75.81	62% 4302-2642 (6944)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 43¢	$284.47	$328.8	+$44.34	47% 13319-14853 (28172)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$148.24	$215.47	+$67.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.1¢	$136.22	$113.33	-$22.89
DR DreamwireCTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$142	$112.5	-$29.5	82% 2840-616 (3456)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$22.5	$21	-$1.5	47% 10297-11504 (21801)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 51¢	$10.71	$13.13	+$2.41	54% 629-546 (1175)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Overavg 46.1¢	$5.99	$5.46	-$0.53	51% 6185-5913 (12098)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$2,640.33

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$707.75

Record

50%

4090-4030 (8120)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$3,348.82

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$233.74

Record

54%

58447-50668 (109115)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,527.97

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$35.78

Record

55%

3200-2598 (5798)

Both legs:

Under$1,163.5748.1¢+$348.64

Over$1,364.452.2¢-$384.42

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$1,453.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$405.2

Record

54%

626-537 (1163)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$1,400.3

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$363.42

Record

51%

4308-4133 (8441)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Under

Invested

$750

Value

$925.53

PnL

+$175.53

Record

46%

392-455 (847)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$586.32

Value

$596.79

PnL

+$10.47

Record

56%

7503-6007 (13510)

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$476.52

Value

$552.33

PnL

+$75.81

Record

62%

4302-2642 (6944)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$284.47

Value

$328.8

PnL

+$44.34

Record

47%

13319-14853 (28172)

Both legs:

Under$148.2443¢+$67.23

Over$136.2245.1¢-$22.89

DreamwireCTR

Over

Invested

$142

Value

$112.5

PnL

-$29.5

Record

82%

2840-616 (3456)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.5

Value

$21

PnL

-$1.5

Record

47%

10297-11504 (21801)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$10.71

Value

$13.13

PnL

+$2.41

Record

54%

629-546 (1175)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.99

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$0.53

Record

51%

6185-5913 (12098)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 40%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.