Spread: Seahawks (-6.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (38%) · Bears at 89¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 3

Seahawks11¢Bears89¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 38%

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$994.95

Smart Money Entry

63.1¢ → 89¢

+41% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks11%

Bears89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears3 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares6,573

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Seahawks5 traders

Total Value$425.56

Total Shares2,520

Combined PnL-$460.79

Bears — 38%Seahawks — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBears 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBears 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTicker	Bearsavg 61¢	$2.9K	$4.0K	+$1.1K	62% 4302-2642 (6944)
65 6512395314597884	Bearsavg 71.1¢	$984.62	$1.2K	+$240.77	51% 4308-4133 (8441)
AN Anon455	Bearsavg 61¢	$292.54	$424.43	+$131.88	55% 3200-2598 (5798)
MaktManCTR	Seahawksavg 39¢	$500	$205.13	-$294.87	52% 56-52 (108)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Seahawksavg 29.9¢	$313.94	$167.89	-$146.06	50% 4090-4030 (8120)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 39¢	$46.41	$33.32	-$13.09	50% 7275-7377 (14652)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 38¢	$25.36	$18.69	-$6.67	54% 17545-14744 (32289)
RN1CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 19¢	$0.65	$0.54	-$0.1	54% 58447-50668 (109115)

SunlineTicker

Bears

Invested

$2,872.54

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

62%

4302-2642 (6944)

6512395314597884

Bears

Invested

$984.62

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$240.77

Record

51%

4308-4133 (8441)

Anon455

Bears

Invested

$292.54

Value

$424.43

PnL

+$131.88

Record

55%

3200-2598 (5798)

MaktManCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$500

Value

$205.13

PnL

-$294.87

Record

52%

56-52 (108)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$313.94

Value

$167.89

PnL

-$146.06

Record

50%

4090-4030 (8120)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$46.41

Value

$33.32

PnL

-$13.09

Record

50%

7275-7377 (14652)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$25.36

Value

$18.69

PnL

-$6.67

Record

54%

17545-14744 (32289)

RN1CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.1

Record

54%

58447-50668 (109115)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 89%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBears 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrBears 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.5%

89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.56

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.