Spread: Seahawks (-4.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (67%) · Bears at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 3

Seahawks<1¢Bears>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bears

Consensus Traders

Bears 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$712.97

Smart Money Entry

62.2¢ → 99.5¢

+60% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralBears at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks1%

Bears100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bears8 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,589

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Seahawks4 traders

Total Value$657.87

Total Shares2,370

Combined PnL-$412.17

Bears — 67%Seahawks — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBears 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpSeahawks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBears 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Bears 60% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
EdZachary	Bearsavg 56¢	$2.1K	$1.7K	+$504.45	42% 108-149 (257)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Bearsavg 56¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$128.03	47% 13872-15352 (29224)
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 56¢	$1.0K	$1.2K	+$111.84
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 43¢	$508.68	$520.51	+$16.19
65 6512395314597884	Bearsavg 56¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	+$307.73	51% 4308-4134 (8442)
AN Anon455	Bearsavg 57¢	$1.0K	$795	+$225	55% 3201-2600 (5801)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Bearsavg 90.5¢	$384.48	$422.72	+$24.22	50% 4093-4032 (8125)
22 0x228b...af4c	Bearsavg 99.1¢	$418.42	$420.11	+$1.69	—
HE HerdoniaCTR	Seahawksavg 43¢	$1.2K	$295.11	-$242.67	54% 3482-3017 (6499)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Seahawksavg 44¢	$212.96	$212.96	+$0	62% 4302-2642 (6944)
VE VenusianCTR	Seahawksavg 44¢	$223.41	$104.09	-$119.32	52% 610-554 (1164)
DI dips.	Bearsavg 56¢	$100	$79.5	+$23.5	46% 7453-8662 (16115)
CM cm2897	Bearsavg 56¢	$100	$79.5	+$23.5	51% 2030-1954 (3984)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Bearsavg 62¢	$86	$68.37	+$15.05	53% 11351-9949 (21300)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Seahawksavg 43¢	$223	$45.72	-$50.18	54% 17558-14752 (32310)

EdZachary

Bears

Invested

$2,146.59

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$504.45

Record

42%

108-149 (257)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Bears

Invested

$1,740

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$128.03

Record

47%

13872-15352 (29224)

Both legs:

Bears$1,043.8456¢+$111.84

Seahawks$508.6843¢+$16.19

6512395314597884

Bears

Invested

$1,309.76

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$307.73

Record

51%

4308-4134 (8442)

Anon455

Bears

Invested

$1,000

Value

$795

PnL

+$225

Record

55%

3201-2600 (5801)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Bears

Invested

$384.48

Value

$422.72

PnL

+$24.22

Record

50%

4093-4032 (8125)

0x228b...af4c

Bears

Invested

$418.42

Value

$420.11

PnL

+$1.69

Record

—

HerdoniaCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$1,228.47

Value

$295.11

PnL

-$242.67

Record

54%

3482-3017 (6499)

SunlineTickerCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$212.96

Value

$212.96

PnL

+$0

Record

62%

4302-2642 (6944)

VenusianCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$223.41

Value

$104.09

PnL

-$119.32

Record

52%

610-554 (1164)

dips.

Bears

Invested

$100

Value

$79.5

PnL

+$23.5

Record

46%

7453-8662 (16115)

cm2897

Bears

Invested

$100

Value

$79.5

PnL

+$23.5

Record

51%

2030-1954 (3984)

justaluckydude<$100

Bears

Invested

$86

Value

$68.37

PnL

+$15.05

Record

53%

11351-9949 (21300)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$223

Value

$45.72

PnL

-$50.18

Record

54%

17558-14752 (32310)

Research grade

NeutralBears at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Bears

8 of 12 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBears 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpSeahawks 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBears 75% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000Bears 60% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bears wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.