Spread: Seahawks (-3.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (60%) · Bears at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Bears
5
Bears 60%
$3.7K
-$2.1
54¢ → 53.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralBears at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoii | Bearsavg 54¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | +$18.4 | 50% 1181-1176 (2357) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Seahawksavg 46¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$18.05 | 58% 41434-30051 (71485) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Seahawksavg 47¢ | $237.23 | $234.77 | -$2.46 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | Bearsavg 53¢ | $10.07 | $9.41 | +$0.1 | 54% 2958-2540 (5498) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Bearsavg 54¢ | $8.32 | $8.24 | -$0.08 | 54% 3281-2830 (6111) |
Invested
$1,986.47
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$18.4
Record
50%
1181-1176 (2357)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$1,660.71
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$18.05
Record
58%
41434-30051 (71485)
Invested
$237.23
Value
$234.77
PnL
-$2.46
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$10.07
Value
$9.41
PnL
+$0.1
Record
54%
2958-2540 (5498)
Invested
$8.32
Value
$8.24
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
3281-2830 (6111)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.