Spread: Seahawks (-2.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (50%) · Seahawks at 57¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 3

Seahawks57¢Bears43¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 50%

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$3.26

Smart Money Entry

57¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seahawks57%

Bears43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks4 traders

Total Value$9.1K

Total Shares15,758

Combined PnL+$72.82

Bears4 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares16,846

Combined PnL-$69.56

Seahawks — 50%Bears — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bears) and the top 1000 (7 on Seahawks) disagree here.

whaleSeahawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBears 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedBears 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Seahawksavg 57¢	$8.0K	$8.0K	+$69.86	50% 225-222 (447)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bearsavg 43¢	$5.8K	$5.6K	-$65.75	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bearsavg 42.3¢	$855.87	$859.41	+$3.54	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
nigiri99	Seahawksavg 57.2¢	$850.56	$855.03	+$4.47	46% 7288-8597 (15885)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Bearsavg 43¢	$659.62	$651.95	-$7.67	62% 4298-2635 (6933)
MA manoamano<$100	Seahawksavg 58¢	$98.8	$97.95	-$0.85	51% 528-507 (1035)
SK skembinator<$100	Seahawksavg 58¢	$75.4	$74.75	-$0.65	53% 420-376 (796)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100	Bearsavg 42¢	$26.63	$26.94	+$0.32	47% 2623-2923 (5546)

Kch-Temp

Seahawks

Invested

$7,963.48

Value

$8.0K

PnL

+$69.86

Record

50%

225-222 (447)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bears

Invested

$5,787.26

Value

$5.6K

PnL

-$65.75

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

38791873984189CTR

Bears

Invested

$855.87

Value

$859.41

PnL

+$3.54

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

nigiri99

Seahawks

Invested

$850.56

Value

$855.03

PnL

+$4.47

Record

46%

7288-8597 (15885)

SunlineTickerCTR

Bears

Invested

$659.62

Value

$651.95

PnL

-$7.67

Record

62%

4298-2635 (6933)

manoamano<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$98.8

Value

$97.95

PnL

-$0.85

Record

51%

528-507 (1035)

skembinator<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$75.4

Value

$74.75

PnL

-$0.65

Record

53%

420-376 (796)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$26.63

Value

$26.94

PnL

+$0.32

Record

47%

2623-2923 (5546)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bears) and the top 1000 (7 on Seahawks) disagree here.

whaleSeahawks 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrBears 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedBears 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.