Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Bears, while the market favors Seahawks (76%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Bears (-5.5)
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Bears (17%) · Bears at 24¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Bears
6
Bears 17%
$3.5K
$231.87
Research grade
AvoidBears at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors Seahawks 76%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Bears. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO botbotCTR | Bearsavg 26¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$200 | 43% 314-418 (732) |
CL claudesports | Seahawksavg 37¢ | $405.91 | $822.79 | +$416.88 | 35% 347-641 (988) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Seahawksavg 74¢ | $391.39 | $396.67 | +$13.22 | 53% 361-319 (680) |
BO BoomLaLa | Seahawksavg 73.5¢ | $157.69 | $160.81 | +$3.12 | 53% 11512-10013 (21525) |
BA Bayupati<$100 | Seahawksavg 76¢ | $74.12 | $73.14 | -$0.98 | 51% 216-204 (420) |
LP lpcapital1<$100 | Seahawksavg 76¢ | $57 | $56.63 | -$0.38 | 63% 1405-820 (2225) |
Invested
$2,079.99
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$200
Record
43%
314-418 (732)
Invested
$405.91
Value
$822.79
PnL
+$416.88
Record
35%
347-641 (988)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$391.39
Value
$396.67
PnL
+$13.22
Record
53%
361-319 (680)
Invested
$157.69
Value
$160.81
PnL
+$3.12
Record
53%
11512-10013 (21525)
Invested
$74.12
Value
$73.14
PnL
-$0.98
Record
51%
216-204 (420)
Invested
$57
Value
$56.63
PnL
-$0.38
Record
63%
1405-820 (2225)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.