Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Seahawks, while the market favors Bears (64%). 8 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Bears (-3.5)

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (53%) · Seahawks at 37¢ · $27K held · ended Nov 3

Bears64¢Seahawks36¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$27.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Entry

69¢ → 36.5¢

-47% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Bears 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears64%

Seahawks37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks8 traders

Total Value$15.7K

Total Shares28,312

Combined PnL$-2.5K

Bears7 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares11,490

Combined PnL+$437.96

Seahawks — 53%Bears — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Seahawksavg 73¢	$7.7K	$7.7K	+$66.05	54% 17558-14752 (32310)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Seahawksavg 62.5¢	$7.3K	$5.4K	$-1.9K	50% 4093-4032 (8125)
RN1ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 56.5¢	$4.4K	$4.5K	+$190.09	54% 58465-50687 (109152)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 56.5¢	$3.0K	$3.1K	+$104.64
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 39.1¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$85.45
KA KaneAnalytics	Bearsavg 36¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$454.94	52% 368-346 (714)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 52.1¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$446.78	51% 4308-4134 (8442)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 52.1¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$613.45
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 46.9¢	$472.63	$639.3	+$166.67
VeryLucky888CTR	Seahawksavg 72.9¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$480.16	58% 43911-31950 (75861)
TKD44	Bearsavg 44¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$90.4	48% 161-175 (336)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Seahawksavg 73¢	$666.94	$525.33	-$141.61	48% 5736-6182 (11918)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Seahawksavg 71.4¢	$1.0K	$413.06	-$284.95	47% 13872-15352 (29224)
└ Seahawks leg	Seahawksavg 71.4¢	$484.34	$247.47	-$332.47
└ Bears leg	Bearsavg 45.3¢	$118.07	$165.59	+$47.52
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Bearsavg 27.8¢	$417.28	$177.34	+$61.34	51% 1616-1563 (3179)
LI LightParadox<$100	Bearsavg 42.4¢	$69.04	$67.63	-$1.41	54% 634-549 (1183)
0xheavy888CTR	Seahawksavg 73¢	$111.99	$65.51	-$16.24	56% 7505-6007 (13512)
VE Venusian<$100	Bearsavg 42.1¢	$59.88	$59.35	-$0.58	52% 610-554 (1164)
TA takeormake<$100	Bearsavg 26.8¢	$25.76	$39.84	+$14.08	53% 4454-3891 (8345)
LI Limousin<$100	Bearsavg 46.5¢	$29.1	$29.09	-$0.01	54% 631-539 (1170)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 73¢	$49	$28.18	-$7.6	49% 13653-14459 (28112)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Seahawksavg 53.7¢	$22	$23.99	+$1.99	47% 10331-11532 (21863)
HY hydra1248CTR<$100	Seahawksavg 53¢	$2.15	$1.24	+$0.1	65% 41-22 (63)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Seahawks

Invested

$7,659.36

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$66.05

Record

54%

17558-14752 (32310)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$7,254

Value

$5.4K

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

50%

4093-4032 (8125)

RN1ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$4,355.42

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$190.09

Record

54%

58465-50687 (109152)

Both legs:

Seahawks$2,956.0856.5¢+$104.64

Bears$1,399.3439.1¢+$85.45

KaneAnalytics

Bears

Invested

$2,519.64

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$454.94

Record

52%

368-346 (714)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$2,517.03

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$446.78

Record

51%

4308-4134 (8442)

Both legs:

Seahawks$2,044.452.1¢-$613.45

Bears$472.6346.9¢+$166.67

VeryLucky888CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$2,351.74

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$480.16

Record

58%

43911-31950 (75861)

TKD44

Bears

Invested

$1,591.04

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$90.4

Record

48%

161-175 (336)

ferdinand2CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$666.94

Value

$525.33

PnL

-$141.61

Record

48%

5736-6182 (11918)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$1,031.01

Value

$413.06

PnL

-$284.95

Record

47%

13872-15352 (29224)

Both legs:

Seahawks$484.3471.4¢-$332.47

Bears$118.0745.3¢+$47.52

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bears

Invested

$417.28

Value

$177.34

PnL

+$61.34

Record

51%

1616-1563 (3179)

LightParadox<$100

Bears

Invested

$69.04

Value

$67.63

PnL

-$1.41

Record

54%

634-549 (1183)

0xheavy888CTR

Seahawks

Invested

$111.99

Value

$65.51

PnL

-$16.24

Record

56%

7505-6007 (13512)

Venusian<$100

Bears

Invested

$59.88

Value

$59.35

PnL

-$0.58

Record

52%

610-554 (1164)

takeormake<$100

Bears

Invested

$25.76

Value

$39.84

PnL

+$14.08

Record

53%

4454-3891 (8345)

Limousin<$100

Bears

Invested

$29.1

Value

$29.09

PnL

-$0.01

Record

54%

631-539 (1170)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$49

Value

$28.18

PnL

-$7.6

Record

49%

13653-14459 (28112)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$22

Value

$23.99

PnL

+$1.99

Record

47%

10331-11532 (21863)

hydra1248CTR<$100

Seahawks

Invested

$2.15

Value

$1.24

PnL

+$0.1

Record

65%

41-22 (63)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

8 of 15 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Bears 64%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSeahawks 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpSeahawks 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 73% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedSeahawks 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Seahawks 57% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.