Spread: Bears (-13.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (60%) · Seahawks at 78¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 3

Bears23¢Seahawks77¢Ended Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 60%

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

$181.59

Smart Money Entry

84.1¢ → 77.5¢

-8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears23%

Seahawks78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks6 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares10,371

Combined PnL+$541.89

Bears4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares10,158

Combined PnL-$360.31

Seahawks — 60%Bears — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bears) and the top 1000 (10 on Seahawks) disagree here.

whaleSeahawks 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBears 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Seahawksavg 74.3¢	$2.9K	$3.4K	+$558.22	50% 4093-4032 (8125)
nigiri99	Seahawksavg 91¢	$3.2K	$3.0K	+$39.33	46% 8114-9455 (17569)
AN Anon455	Seahawksavg 89¢	$1.9K	$1.7K	-$9.33	55% 3201-2600 (5801)
LI Limousin	Seahawksavg 91¢	$566	$500.91	-$14.15	54% 631-539 (1170)
TA takeormakeCTR	Bearsavg 9¢	$4.3K	$496.11	+$107.85	53% 4454-3891 (8345)
RN1CTR	Bearsavg 27¢	$707.94	$340.86	-$367.08	54% 58465-50687 (109152)
38 38791873984189	Seahawksavg 86.5¢	$341.48	$313.05	-$28.43	47% 13872-15352 (29224)
NE neymar1CTR	Bearsavg 10.9¢	$2.2K	$255.53	+$13.92	29% 327-785 (1112)
BO BoomLaLa	Seahawksavg 90¢	$250	$221.25	-$3.75	54% 11690-10142 (21832)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Bearsavg 23¢	$230	$130	-$115	51% 4308-4134 (8442)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Seahawks

Invested

$2,930.46

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$558.22

Record

50%

4093-4032 (8125)

nigiri99

Seahawks

Invested

$3,156.38

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$39.33

Record

46%

8114-9455 (17569)

Anon455

Seahawks

Invested

$1,865

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$9.33

Record

55%

3201-2600 (5801)

Limousin

Seahawks

Invested

$566

Value

$500.91

PnL

-$14.15

Record

54%

631-539 (1170)

takeormakeCTR

Bears

Invested

$4,314

Value

$496.11

PnL

+$107.85

Record

53%

4454-3891 (8345)

RN1CTR

Bears

Invested

$707.94

Value

$340.86

PnL

-$367.08

Record

54%

58465-50687 (109152)

38791873984189

Seahawks

Invested

$341.48

Value

$313.05

PnL

-$28.43

Record

47%

13872-15352 (29224)

neymar1CTR

Bears

Invested

$2,222

Value

$255.53

PnL

+$13.92

Record

29%

327-785 (1112)

BoomLaLa

Seahawks

Invested

$250

Value

$221.25

PnL

-$3.75

Record

54%

11690-10142 (21832)

6512395314597884CTR

Bears

Invested

$230

Value

$130

PnL

-$115

Record

51%

4308-4134 (8442)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bears) and the top 1000 (10 on Seahawks) disagree here.

whaleSeahawks 50% · 4

Aligned

ctrSeahawks 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBears 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Seahawks 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.