Bears vs. Seahawks

3 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Seahawks (14%) · Seahawks at 63¢ · $220K held · ends Nov 3

Bears38¢Seahawks62¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Seahawks

Consensus Traders

Seahawks 14%

Total Value

$219.7K

Combined PnL

$389.18

Smart Money Entry

62¢ → 62.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

3 of 21 top traders (14%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bears38%

Seahawks63%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seahawks3 traders

Total Value$137.4K

Total Shares219,872

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Bears18 traders

Total Value$82.3K

Total Shares218,918

Combined PnL-$676.31

Seahawks — 14%Bears — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBears 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpBears 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrBears 94% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedBears 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bears 84% · 19

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-Temp	Seahawksavg 62¢	$134.2K	$135.3K	+$1.1K	50% 225-222 (447)
EdZacharyCTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$38.0K	$37.5K	-$500	42% 108-149 (257)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Bearsavg 37.7¢	$18.4K	$18.3K	-$103.31	72% 6936-2743 (9679)
VeryLucky888CTR	Bearsavg 37.8¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	-$49.4	58% 43617-31727 (75344)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Bearsavg 37¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$57.25	49% 420-438 (858)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	-$44.01	49% 13480-14176 (27656)
38 38791873984189CTR	Bearsavg 37¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$51.53	47% 13029-14600 (27629)
WL Wldntulike2knowCTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$20	49% 364-384 (748)
SK skembinator	Seahawksavg 63¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10.65	53% 420-376 (796)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$15.44	58% 48522-34672 (83194)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Bearsavg 37¢	$956.58	$969.5	+$12.93	47% 2623-2923 (5546)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Bearsavg 37¢	$914.12	$926.48	+$12.35	50% 2584-2581 (5165)
MA manoamano	Seahawksavg 63¢	$791.9	$785.62	-$6.28	51% 528-507 (1035)
LI lissartterCTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$760	$750	-$10	42% 5357-7373 (12730)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$760	$750	-$10	47% 107-123 (230)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$760	$750	-$10	49% 2929-3048 (5977)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$705.45	$696.17	-$9.28	54% 3479-3014 (6493)
HI hi774cCTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$550	$542.76	-$7.24	51% 4856-4597 (9453)
DA darkumbreon88CTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$452.64	$446.68	-$5.96	65% 1811-989 (2800)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Bearsavg 38¢	$380	$375	-$5	53% 5752-5086 (10838)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Bearsavg 47.9¢	$95.36	$74.63	-$20.74	46% 7288-8597 (15885)

Kch-Temp

Seahawks

Invested

$134,220.75

Value

$135.3K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

225-222 (447)

EdZacharyCTR

Bears

Invested

$38,000

Value

$37.5K

PnL

-$500

Record

42%

108-149 (257)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Bears

Invested

$18,426.07

Value

$18.3K

PnL

-$103.31

Record

72%

6936-2743 (9679)

VeryLucky888CTR

Bears

Invested

$7,549.95

Value

$7.5K

PnL

-$49.4

Record

58%

43617-31727 (75344)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Bears

Invested

$4,236.62

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$57.25

Record

49%

420-438 (858)

LuckyLooCTR

Bears

Invested

$3,344.38

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$44.01

Record

49%

13480-14176 (27656)

38791873984189CTR

Bears

Invested

$2,348.87

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$51.53

Record

47%

13029-14600 (27629)

Wldntulike2knowCTR

Bears

Invested

$1,520

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$20

Record

49%

364-384 (748)

skembinator

Seahawks

Invested

$1,341.9

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10.65

Record

53%

420-376 (796)

UpTheBluesCTR

Bears

Invested

$1,173.63

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$15.44

Record

58%

48522-34672 (83194)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Bears

Invested

$956.58

Value

$969.5

PnL

+$12.93

Record

47%

2623-2923 (5546)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Bears

Invested

$914.12

Value

$926.48

PnL

+$12.35

Record

50%

2584-2581 (5165)

manoamano

Seahawks

Invested

$791.9

Value

$785.62

PnL

-$6.28

Record

51%

528-507 (1035)

lissartterCTR

Bears

Invested

$760

Value

$750

PnL

-$10

Record

42%

5357-7373 (12730)

DolphinBallerCTR

Bears

Invested

$760

Value

$750

PnL

-$10

Record

47%

107-123 (230)

6512395314597884CTR

Bears

Invested

$760

Value

$750

PnL

-$10

Record

49%

2929-3048 (5977)

HerdoniaCTR

Bears

Invested

$705.45

Value

$696.17

PnL

-$9.28

Record

54%

3479-3014 (6493)

hi774cCTR

Bears

Invested

$550

Value

$542.76

PnL

-$7.24

Record

51%

4856-4597 (9453)

darkumbreon88CTR

Bears

Invested

$452.64

Value

$446.68

PnL

-$5.96

Record

65%

1811-989 (2800)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Bears

Invested

$380

Value

$375

PnL

-$5

Record

53%

5752-5086 (10838)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Bears

Invested

$95.36

Value

$74.63

PnL

-$20.74

Record

46%

7288-8597 (15885)

Research grade

NeutralSeahawks at 63%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Seahawks

3 of 21 top traders (14%)18 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

15% of non-arb traders are on Seahawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBears 83% · 6

Diverging

sharpBears 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrBears 94% · 16

Diverging

Hand-pickedBears 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bears 84% · 19

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Seahawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.