Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 50.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 55¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 15

Over46¢Under54¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.4K

Combined PnL

$1.76

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over46%

Under55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$8.0K

Total Shares17,513

Combined PnL+$82.38

Under6 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares15,110

Combined PnL-$80.62

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Overavg 45¢	$6.6K	$6.6K	+$72.87	59% 1182-828 (2010)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	-$38.25	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 54.8¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$9.95	53% 1909-1671 (3580)
AN Anon455CTR	Overavg 45¢	$900	$910	+$10	49% 482-499 (981)
0xheavy888	Underavg 55¢	$680.35	$667.98	-$12.37	56% 668-530 (1198)
SE sentrio	Underavg 55¢	$489.13	$480.24	-$8.89	41% 1189-1686 (2875)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 55¢	$440	$432	-$8	30% 489-1134 (1623)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 46¢	$354.66	$350.81	-$3.86	69% 1738-776 (2514)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Underavg 55¢	$173.89	$170.73	-$3.16	48% 472-515 (987)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$74.13	$77.49	+$3.37	47% 1199-1376 (2575)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 55¢	$45	$45	+$0	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55¢	$24.75	$24.52	-$0.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 45¢	$20.25	$20.48	+$0.23

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$6,558.04

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$72.87

Record

59%

1182-828 (2010)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$4,500.7

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$38.25

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$2,172.73

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$9.95

Record

53%

1909-1671 (3580)

Anon455CTR

Over

Invested

$900

Value

$910

PnL

+$10

Record

49%

482-499 (981)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$680.35

Value

$667.98

PnL

-$12.37

Record

56%

668-530 (1198)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$489.13

Value

$480.24

PnL

-$8.89

Record

41%

1189-1686 (2875)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$440

Value

$432

PnL

-$8

Record

30%

489-1134 (1623)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$354.66

Value

$350.81

PnL

-$3.86

Record

69%

1738-776 (2514)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Under

Invested

$173.89

Value

$170.73

PnL

-$3.16

Record

48%

472-515 (987)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$74.13

Value

$77.49

PnL

+$3.37

Record

47%

1199-1376 (2575)

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$45

Value

$45

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

Both legs:

Under$24.7555¢-$0.22

Over$20.2545¢+$0.23

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 55%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.