Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 44.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 94¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

$709.68

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 94¢

+86% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,997

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Over3 traders

Total Value$909.83

Total Shares3,660

Combined PnL-$964.44

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Underavg 49.9¢	$1.9K	$3.4K	+$1.6K	51% 572-546 (1118)
BI biying88888CTR	Overavg 51¢	$733.89	$489.26	-$244.63	44% 244-314 (558)
LE LesterDiamondCTR	Overavg 51¢	$1.1K	$399.51	-$701.84	31% 43-97 (140)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 64¢	$199.24	$203.4	+$4.16	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 36.5¢	$42.73	$77.19	+$34.47	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 90¢	$29.12	$30.41	+$1.29	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Overavg 63¢	$39.03	$21.07	-$17.97	36% 140-253 (393)
AN Anon455<$100	Underavg 48¢	$9.12	$15.01	+$5.89	49% 486-502 (988)
RN1<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.68	$4.41	+$1.73	54% 6042-5119 (11161)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Under

Invested

$1,909.39

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

biying88888CTR

Over

Invested

$733.89

Value

$489.26

PnL

-$244.63

Record

44%

244-314 (558)

LesterDiamondCTR

Over

Invested

$1,101.35

Value

$399.51

PnL

-$701.84

Record

31%

43-97 (140)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$199.24

Value

$203.4

PnL

+$4.16

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$42.73

Value

$77.19

PnL

+$34.47

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$29.12

Value

$30.41

PnL

+$1.29

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

OddstormCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$39.03

Value

$21.07

PnL

-$17.97

Record

36%

140-253 (393)

Anon455<$100

Under

Invested

$9.12

Value

$15.01

PnL

+$5.89

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$2.68

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$1.73

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.