Panthers vs. Saints: O/U 38.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 57¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 15

Over43¢Under57¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$673.23

Smart Money Entry

53.6¢ → 57.5¢

+7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,069

Combined PnL+$678.84

Over3 traders

Total Value$983.11

Total Shares1,928

Combined PnL-$5.61

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360	Underavg 49.4¢	$2.0K	$2.6K	+$613.19	—
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 51¢	$1.8K	$1.5K	-$336.41	54% 6042-5119 (11161)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51¢	$1.3K	$946.12	-$340.6
└ Under leg	Underavg 62¢	$519.64	$523.83	+$4.19
AN Anon455	Underavg 62¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$10	49% 486-502 (988)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 50¢	$589.33	$601.12	+$11.79	50% 2863-2911 (5774)
65 6512395314597884	Underavg 55.2¢	$384.15	$435.1	+$50.94	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Overavg 55.5¢	$249.39	$228.99	-$20.4	51% 572-546 (1118)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 50¢	$150	$153	+$3	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
alpheclabs2<$100	Underavg 44¢	$85.36	$95.06	+$9.7	45% 373-460 (833)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 62¢	$94.55	$57.81	-$8.24	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
DR Dreamwire<$100	Underavg 59¢	$26.55	$29.03	+$2.48	77% 277-81 (358)
GG GGLPL<$100	Underavg 49¢	$2.45	$3.23	+$0.77	47% 27-30 (57)

0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360

Under

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$613.19

Record

—

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,806.37

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$336.41

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Both legs:

Over$1,286.7351¢-$340.6

Under$519.6462¢+$4.19

Anon455

Under

Invested

$1,240

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$10

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$589.33

Value

$601.12

PnL

+$11.79

Record

50%

2863-2911 (5774)

6512395314597884

Under

Invested

$384.15

Value

$435.1

PnL

+$50.94

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Over

Invested

$249.39

Value

$228.99

PnL

-$20.4

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$150

Value

$153

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

alpheclabs2<$100

Under

Invested

$85.36

Value

$95.06

PnL

+$9.7

Record

45%

373-460 (833)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$94.55

Value

$57.81

PnL

-$8.24

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Dreamwire<$100

Under

Invested

$26.55

Value

$29.03

PnL

+$2.48

Record

77%

277-81 (358)

GGLPL<$100

Under

Invested

$2.45

Value

$3.23

PnL

+$0.77

Record

47%

27-30 (57)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.