Spread: Panthers (-6.5)
2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (25%) · Panthers at 52¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 15
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Neutral
Panthers
8
Panthers 25%
$11.9K
$928.58
58.4¢ → 51.5¢
-12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralPanthers at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 8 top traders (25%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AltMind | Panthersavg 58.5¢ | $6.0K | $5.3K | -$712.37 | — |
 RN1CTR | Saintsavg 42¢ | $2.1K | $3.2K | +$1.0K | 54% 6042-5119 (11161) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Saintsavg 41¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$209.77 | 50% 2863-2911 (5774) |
AN Anon455CTR | Saintsavg 41.9¢ | $913.17 | $1.4K | +$448.81 | 49% 486-502 (988) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Saintsavg 72¢ | $734.31 | $615.15 | -$97.15 | 48% 3997-4384 (8381) |
NO NotJumpCTR<$100 | Saintsavg 42¢ | $42 | $62.5 | +$20.5 | 50% 1156-1164 (2320) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Saintsavg 45.1¢ | $29.93 | $42 | +$12.07 | 50% 2197-2203 (4400) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Panthersavg 40¢ | $9.6 | $9 | -$0.6 | 57% 3682-2769 (6451) |
AltMindInvested
$5,965.37
Value
$5.3K
PnL
-$712.37
Record
—
RN1CTRInvested
$2,146.2
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$1.0K
Record
54%
6042-5119 (11161)
Invested
$1,152.84
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$209.77
Record
50%
2863-2911 (5774)
Invested
$913.17
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$448.81
Record
49%
486-502 (988)
Invested
$734.31
Value
$615.15
PnL
-$97.15
Record
48%
3997-4384 (8381)
Invested
$42
Value
$62.5
PnL
+$20.5
Record
50%
1156-1164 (2320)
Invested
$29.93
Value
$42
PnL
+$12.07
Record
50%
2197-2203 (4400)
Invested
$9.6
Value
$9
PnL
-$0.6
Record
57%
3682-2769 (6451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.