Spread: Panthers (-3.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Saints (44%) · Saints at 66¢ · $391 held · ends Nov 15

Panthers35¢Saints65¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saints

Consensus Traders

Saints 44%

Total Value

$391.35

Combined PnL

$3.55

Smart Money Entry

65.7¢ → 65.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Panthers35%

Saints66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saints4 traders

Total Value$267.41

Total Shares409

Combined PnL-$1.26

Panthers5 traders

Total Value$123.94

Total Shares355

Combined PnL+$4.81

Saints — 44%Panthers — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Saints) and the top 1000 (8 on Panthers) disagree here.

ctrPanthers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Saintsavg 65¢	$174.2	$175.54	+$1.34	56% 665-530 (1195)
38 38791873984189<$100	Saintsavg 68¢	$63.92	$61.1	-$2.82	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Panthersavg 33¢	$48.49	$51.43	+$2.94	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Panthersavg 34¢	$34.02	$35	+$0.98	35% 138-251 (389)
PA Pan9X<$100	Saintsavg 65¢	$29.25	$29.48	+$0.23	50% 2177-2197 (4374)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Panthersavg 33¢	$17.51	$18.57	+$1.06	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Panthersavg 35¢	$15.66	$15.44	-$0.22	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Panthersavg 34¢	$3.45	$3.5	+$0.05	48% 471-508 (979)
VeryLucky888<$100	Saintsavg 65¢	$1.3	$1.3	+$0	53% 1889-1648 (3537)

0xheavy888

Saints

Invested

$174.2

Value

$175.54

PnL

+$1.34

Record

56%

665-530 (1195)

38791873984189<$100

Saints

Invested

$63.92

Value

$61.1

PnL

-$2.82

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$48.49

Value

$51.43

PnL

+$2.94

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

OddstormCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$34.02

Value

$35

PnL

+$0.98

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

Pan9X<$100

Saints

Invested

$29.25

Value

$29.48

PnL

+$0.23

Record

50%

2177-2197 (4374)

VenusianCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$17.51

Value

$18.57

PnL

+$1.06

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

LimousinCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$15.66

Value

$15.44

PnL

-$0.22

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$3.45

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

48%

471-508 (979)

VeryLucky888<$100

Saints

Invested

$1.3

Value

$1.3

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1889-1648 (3537)

Research grade

NeutralSaints at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Saints

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

-6 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Saints) and the top 1000 (8 on Panthers) disagree here.

ctrPanthers 71% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedSaints 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.