Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 54.5

11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (92%) · Under at 51¢ · $69K held · ended Oct 30

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 92%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$68.8K

Combined PnL

$-3.2K

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 50.5¢

-30% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$68.7K

Total Shares96,748

Combined PnL$-3.2K

Over1 trader

Total Value$6.5

Total Shares26

Combined PnL+$0.65

Under — 92%Over — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 72.5¢	$18.9K	$18.6K	-$393.97	54% 17021-14267 (31288)
HI hi774c	Underavg 72.5¢	$16.4K	$16.1K	$-2.3K	52% 4694-4412 (9106)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 72.5¢	$8.6K	$8.5K	+$117.9	50% 2488-2472 (4960)
BA Bagwell306	Underavg 72¢	$7.9K	$7.8K	-$109.98	59% 4031-2851 (6882)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 73.5¢	$7.3K	$7.1K	-$250	58% 41344-29975 (71319)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542	Underavg 73¢	$5.1K	$5.0K	-$140	47% 2459-2755 (5214)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Underavg 73¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$76.38	54% 4831-4067 (8898)
WO woshikd99	Underavg 72¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$30	54% 98-83 (181)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Underavg 73¢	$730	$710	-$20	53% 5558-4922 (10480)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Underavg 72.8¢	$150.05	$146.26	-$3.79	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 55.4¢	$158.79	$144.97	-$13.82	54% 56110-48247 (104357)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.4¢	$121.84	$111.1	-$10.74
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$36.95	$33.87	-$3.08
SL slimjoe<$100	Underavg 72¢	$69.84	$68.87	-$0.97	51% 6472-6142 (12614)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 25¢	$5.85	$6.5	+$0.65	53% 11512-10014 (21526)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$18,944

Value

$18.6K

PnL

-$393.97

Record

54%

17021-14267 (31288)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$16,431.36

Value

$16.1K

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

52%

4694-4412 (9106)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$8,640.87

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$117.9

Record

50%

2488-2472 (4960)

Bagwell306

Under

Invested

$7,918.56

Value

$7.8K

PnL

-$109.98

Record

59%

4031-2851 (6882)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$7,350

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$250

Record

58%

41344-29975 (71319)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542

Under

Invested

$5,110

Value

$5.0K

PnL

-$140

Record

47%

2459-2755 (5214)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Under

Invested

$2,730.03

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$76.38

Record

54%

4831-4067 (8898)

woshikd99

Under

Invested

$2,160

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$30

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Under

Invested

$730

Value

$710

PnL

-$20

Record

53%

5558-4922 (10480)

LeLynxMalynx

Under

Invested

$150.05

Value

$146.26

PnL

-$3.79

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$158.79

Value

$144.97

PnL

-$13.82

Record

54%

56110-48247 (104357)

Both legs:

Under$121.8455.4¢-$10.74

Over$36.9554¢-$3.08

slimjoe<$100

Under

Invested

$69.84

Value

$68.87

PnL

-$0.97

Record

51%

6472-6142 (12614)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.85

Value

$6.5

PnL

+$0.65

Record

53%

11512-10014 (21526)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 49%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

92% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 49% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.