Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 50.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 68¢ · $38K held · ended Oct 30

Over68¢Under32¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.0K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

44.4¢ → 67.5¢

+52% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over68%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares27,131

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares10,551

Combined PnL-$58.12

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 44.1¢	$9.0K	$9.8K	+$865.58	54% 56110-48247 (104357)
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.1¢	$5.4K	$6.1K	+$722.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$3.6K	$3.7K	+$143.22
PR primm	Overavg 41.6¢	$7.8K	$9.4K	+$1.6K	46% 1041-1242 (2283)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 51.8¢	$9.3K	$9.3K	+$48.72	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.8¢	$5.7K	$5.5K	-$199.77
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.7¢	$3.5K	$3.8K	+$248.49
ON Onomatopoeia777CTR	Underavg 50.9¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$58.99	45% 69-83 (152)
Reformedx	Overavg 52¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$72.44	52% 811-759 (1570)
JU justaluckydude	Overavg 49¢	$1.7K	$1.8K	+$35.84	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
DR DreamwireCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$90	83% 2561-521 (3082)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Underavg 55¢	$1.0K	$909.39	-$90.61	— 4-2 (6)
OM omnibus-076daa	Overavg 49¢	$340.27	$347.21	+$6.94	49% 18884-19303 (38187)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5	Overavg 61¢	$183	$183	+$0	—
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks	Overavg 41¢	$88.97	$108.5	+$19.53	54% 2953-2534 (5487)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Underavg 48.9¢	$67.13	$68.6	+$1.47	50% 3766-3742 (7508)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$8,972.94

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$865.58

Record

54%

56110-48247 (104357)

Both legs:

Under$5,395.944.1¢+$722.36

Over$3,577.0448.1¢+$143.22

primm

Over

Invested

$7,798.93

Value

$9.4K

PnL

+$1.6K

Record

46%

1041-1242 (2283)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$9,260.11

Value

$9.3K

PnL

+$48.72

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

Both legs:

Over$5,741.3951.8¢-$199.77

Under$3,518.7246.7¢+$248.49

Onomatopoeia777CTR

Under

Invested

$3,356.31

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$58.99

Record

45%

69-83 (152)

Reformedx

Over

Invested

$1,883.44

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$72.44

Record

52%

811-759 (1570)

justaluckydude

Over

Invested

$1,745.26

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$35.84

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

DreamwireCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$90

Record

83%

2561-521 (3082)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$909.39

PnL

-$90.61

Record

—

4-2 (6)

omnibus-076daa

Over

Invested

$340.27

Value

$347.21

PnL

+$6.94

Record

49%

18884-19303 (38187)

0x0d2d...7ff5

Over

Invested

$183

Value

$183

PnL

+$0

Record

—

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Over

Invested

$88.97

Value

$108.5

PnL

+$19.53

Record

54%

2953-2534 (5487)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$67.13

Value

$68.6

PnL

+$1.47

Record

50%

3766-3742 (7508)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 10 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.