Panthers vs. Packers: O/U 48.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 55¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 57%
$11.2K
-$42.24
52.6¢ → 54.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52.6¢ | $8.6K | $8.6K | -$19.27 | 54% 16758-14063 (30821) |
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $2.5K | $2.4K | -$25 | 50% 1112-1111 (2223) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Underavg 53¢ | $109.02 | $107.99 | -$1.03 | 54% 568-482 (1050) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Underavg 53¢ | $103.76 | $106.7 | +$2.94 | 49% 18462-18884 (37346) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $29.58 | $30.31 | +$0.29 | 58% 27891-20538 (48429) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $12.48 | $12.22 | -$0.26 | 54% 2891-2481 (5372) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $7.65 | $7.74 | +$0.08 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
Invested
$8,589.28
Value
$8.6K
PnL
-$19.27
Record
54%
16758-14063 (30821)
Invested
$2,450
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$25
Record
50%
1112-1111 (2223)
Invested
$109.02
Value
$107.99
PnL
-$1.03
Record
54%
568-482 (1050)
Invested
$103.76
Value
$106.7
PnL
+$2.94
Record
49%
18462-18884 (37346)
Invested
$29.58
Value
$30.31
PnL
+$0.29
Record
58%
27891-20538 (48429)
Invested
$12.48
Value
$12.22
PnL
-$0.26
Record
54%
2891-2481 (5372)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$7.65
Value
$7.74
PnL
+$0.08
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.