Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Panthers Team Total: O/U 20.5
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 47¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 25%
$3.6K
-$13.5
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 47%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
32 32555CTR | Underavg 47.5¢ | $3.5K | $3.4K | -$12.99 | 51% 83-79 (162) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Overavg 52.7¢ | $169.66 | $169.66 | +$0 | 53% 362-319 (681) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $21.06 | $20.55 | -$0.39 | 50% 6901-6894 (13795) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $13.05 | $12.74 | -$0.12 | 51% 6472-6142 (12614) |
Invested
$3,450.45
Value
$3.4K
PnL
-$12.99
Record
51%
83-79 (162)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$169.66
Value
$169.66
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
362-319 (681)
Invested
$21.06
Value
$20.55
PnL
-$0.39
Record
50%
6901-6894 (13795)
Invested
$13.05
Value
$12.74
PnL
-$0.12
Record
51%
6472-6142 (12614)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.