Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Panthers, while the market favors Packers (66%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Packers (-5.5)
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (100%) · Panthers at 34¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Panthers
5
Panthers 100%
2 arb excluded
$7.8K
$275.19
45.5¢ → 34¢
-25% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralPanthers at 34%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Packers 66%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerARB<$100 | Packersavg 45¢ | $3.1K | $2.9K | -$169.82 | 62% 4112-2513 (6625) |
| └ Panthers leg | Panthersavg 55.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$140.44 | |
| └ Packers leg | Packersavg 45¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | -$310.25 | |
AN Anon455ARB<$100 | Panthersavg 38.5¢ | $1.9K | $2.3K | +$436.71 | 56% 2802-2223 (5025) |
| └ Panthers leg | Panthersavg 38.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$186.56 | |
| └ Packers leg | Packersavg 44.6¢ | $751.4 | $934.22 | +$250.15 | |
 RN1CTR | Panthersavg 33¢ | $838.43 | $1.1K | +$291.02 | 54% 56110-48247 (104357) |
 hammyandcheeseCTR | Panthersavg 63¢ | $630 | $640 | +$10 | 56% 374-294 (668) |
 0xheavy888CTR | Panthersavg 55¢ | $1.1K | $568.14 | -$44.56 | 55% 7008-5622 (12630) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Panthersavg 55¢ | $169.6 | $188.11 | +$18.5 | 58% 41344-29975 (71319) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Panthersavg 56¢ | $25.76 | $28.06 | +$0.23 | 58% 28294-20870 (49164) |
Invested
$3,106.93
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$169.82
Record
62%
4112-2513 (6625)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,937.86
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$436.71
Record
56%
2802-2223 (5025)
Both legs:
RN1CTRInvested
$838.43
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$291.02
Record
54%
56110-48247 (104357)
hammyandcheeseCTRInvested
$630
Value
$640
PnL
+$10
Record
56%
374-294 (668)
0xheavy888CTRInvested
$1,114
Value
$568.14
PnL
-$44.56
Record
55%
7008-5622 (12630)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$169.6
Value
$188.11
PnL
+$18.5
Record
58%
41344-29975 (71319)
Invested
$25.76
Value
$28.06
PnL
+$0.23
Record
58%
28294-20870 (49164)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.