Spread: Packers (-3.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (67%) · Packers at 51¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Packers
6
Packers 67%
$6.8K
$91.83
50.7¢ → 50.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralPackers at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO mooseborzoiiCTR | Panthersavg 50¢ | $2.7K | $2.9K | +$241.01 | 50% 1112-1110 (2222) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Packersavg 50¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$17.12 | 54% 16740-14044 (30784) |
0X 0x8Bb006d1bB8b1C5735DA79E81637e3dad6E3ca79-1768601841360 | Packersavg 51.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$180.11 | 45% 123-151 (274) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Panthersavg 49¢ | $414.05 | $460.53 | +$46.48 | 50% 32583-32122 (64705) |
 VeryLucky888 | Packersavg 50¢ | $350 | $318.5 | -$31.5 | 58% 40396-29173 (69569) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Packersavg 50¢ | $13 | $11.83 | -$1.17 | 58% 27870-20508 (48378) |
Invested
$2,677.92
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$241.01
Record
50%
1112-1110 (2222)
Invested
$1,712
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$17.12
Record
54%
16740-14044 (30784)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$180.11
Record
45%
123-151 (274)
Invested
$414.05
Value
$460.53
PnL
+$46.48
Record
50%
32583-32122 (64705)
VeryLucky888Invested
$350
Value
$318.5
PnL
-$31.5
Record
58%
40396-29173 (69569)
Invested
$13
Value
$11.83
PnL
-$1.17
Record
58%
27870-20508 (48378)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.