Spread: Packers (-2.5)

5 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (38%) · Packers at 59¢ · $23K held · ended Oct 30

Packers59¢Panthers41¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Packers

Consensus Traders

Packers 38%

Total Value

$23.1K

Combined PnL

$606.81

Smart Money Entry

57.1¢ → 59¢

+3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Packers

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Packers59%

Panthers41%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Packers5 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares25,932

Combined PnL+$529.23

Panthers8 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares18,667

Combined PnL+$77.58

Packers — 38%Panthers — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VigorishVault	Packersavg 60¢	$10.3K	$10.2K	-$85.71	— 6-2 (8)
VeryLucky888CTR	Panthersavg 40¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$50	58% 41297-29942 (71239)
RN1	Packersavg 48¢	$2.4K	$3.2K	+$732.36	54% 56079-48206 (104285)
AN Anon455	Packersavg 56.7¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$102.9	56% 2793-2215 (5008)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Panthersavg 40¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$19.06	62% 4112-2513 (6625)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Panthersavg 40.2¢	$908.81	$915.02	+$6.21	54% 3276-2828 (6104)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Panthersavg 40¢	$893.38	$893.38	+$0	54% 17016-14265 (31281)
PR primm	Packersavg 54¢	$312.66	$298.19	-$14.48	46% 1041-1242 (2283)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Panthersavg 40¢	$58.8	$59.54	+$0.74	58% 28272-20850 (49122)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Panthersavg 40¢	$44.8	$44.8	+$0.56	55% 7001-5619 (12620)
StudyPredictionCTR<$100	Panthersavg 40¢	$28	$28	+$0.35	53% 4566-3981 (8547)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Panthersavg 45¢	$14.85	$15.51	+$0.66	54% 10577-9177 (19754)
GH ghorrock<$100	Packersavg 59¢	$4.67	$4.63	-$0.04	57% 13390-10234 (23624)

VigorishVault

Packers

Invested

$10,285

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$85.71

Record

—

6-2 (8)

VeryLucky888CTR

Panthers

Invested

$4,000

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$50

Record

58%

41297-29942 (71239)

RN1

Packers

Invested

$2,427.64

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$732.36

Record

54%

56079-48206 (104285)

Anon455

Packers

Invested

$1,942.7

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$102.9

Record

56%

2793-2215 (5008)

SunlineTickerCTR

Panthers

Invested

$1,524.81

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$19.06

Record

62%

4112-2513 (6625)

HerdoniaCTR

Panthers

Invested

$908.81

Value

$915.02

PnL

+$6.21

Record

54%

3276-2828 (6104)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Panthers

Invested

$893.38

Value

$893.38

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

17016-14265 (31281)

primm

Packers

Invested

$312.66

Value

$298.19

PnL

-$14.48

Record

46%

1041-1242 (2283)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$58.8

Value

$59.54

PnL

+$0.74

Record

58%

28272-20850 (49122)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$44.8

Value

$44.8

PnL

+$0.56

Record

55%

7001-5619 (12620)

StudyPredictionCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$28

Value

$28

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

4566-3981 (8547)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Panthers

Invested

$14.85

Value

$15.51

PnL

+$0.66

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

ghorrock<$100

Packers

Invested

$4.67

Value

$4.63

PnL

-$0.04

Record

57%

13390-10234 (23624)

Research grade

NeutralPackers at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Packers

5 of 13 top traders (38%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Packers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.