Spread: Packers (-1.5)
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (86%) · Packers at 82¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Packers
7
Packers 86%
$7.4K
$2.0K
47.9¢ → 82¢
+71% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralPackers at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Packersavg 46.3¢ | $3.4K | $5.6K | +$2.3K | 54% 56110-48247 (104357) |
AN Anon455 | Packersavg 52¢ | $975.13 | $1.0K | +$53.06 | 56% 2802-2223 (5025) |
ET ethanazCTR | Panthersavg 50¢ | $755.04 | $339.77 | -$415.27 | 52% 660-605 (1265) |
TA takeormake | Packersavg 61.3¢ | $252 | $318.75 | +$66.75 | 53% 3934-3425 (7359) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Packersavg 61¢ | $36.6 | $31.2 | -$5.4 | 58% 41344-29975 (71319) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Packersavg 61¢ | $28.67 | $24.44 | -$4.23 | 58% 28294-20870 (49164) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Packersavg 61¢ | $17.69 | $15.08 | -$2.61 | 62% 4112-2513 (6625) |
RN1Invested
$3,370.4
Value
$5.6K
PnL
+$2.3K
Record
54%
56110-48247 (104357)
Invested
$975.13
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$53.06
Record
56%
2802-2223 (5025)
Invested
$755.04
Value
$339.77
PnL
-$415.27
Record
52%
660-605 (1265)
Invested
$252
Value
$318.75
PnL
+$66.75
Record
53%
3934-3425 (7359)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$36.6
Value
$31.2
PnL
-$5.4
Record
58%
41344-29975 (71319)
Invested
$28.67
Value
$24.44
PnL
-$4.23
Record
58%
28294-20870 (49164)
Invested
$17.69
Value
$15.08
PnL
-$2.61
Record
62%
4112-2513 (6625)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.