Spread: Packers (-13.5)

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (83%) · Panthers at 66¢ · $70K held · ended Oct 30

Packers35¢Panthers65¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Panthers

Consensus Traders

Panthers 83%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$69.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

79.5¢ → 65.5¢

-18% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Packers35%

Panthers66%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Panthers10 traders

Total Value$66.5K

Total Shares91,672

Combined PnL$-2.6K

Packers2 traders

Total Value$584.79

Total Shares2,127

Combined PnL+$153.16

Panthers — 83%Packers — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPanthers 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Panthersavg 79.5¢	$27.9K	$25.4K	-$184.51	54% 17021-14267 (31288)
VeryLucky888	Panthersavg 79.7¢	$11.9K	$10.9K	$-1.1K	58% 41344-29975 (71319)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Panthersavg 79¢	$8.6K	$8.8K	+$243.27	50% 2488-2472 (4960)
HI hi774c	Panthersavg 80¢	$9.3K	$8.4K	-$405.74	52% 4694-4412 (9106)
WO woshikd99	Panthersavg 79.2¢	$7.1K	$6.5K	-$597.09	54% 98-83 (181)
BA Bagwell306	Panthersavg 79¢	$4.0K	$3.6K	-$325	59% 4031-2851 (6882)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Panthersavg 80¢	$3.0K	$2.7K	-$277.5	54% 4831-4067 (8898)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Panthersavg 80¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	-$0	56% 2802-2223 (5025)
└ Panthers leg	Panthersavg 80¢	$2.0K	$1.8K	-$187.5
└ Packers leg	Packersavg 20¢	$500	$687.5	+$187.5
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Packersavg 20¢	$400	$550	+$150	53% 363-319 (682)
SL slimjoe<$100	Panthersavg 79¢	$70.31	$64.52	-$5.79	51% 6472-6142 (12614)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Panthersavg 80¢	$52.8	$47.85	-$4.95	58% 28294-20870 (49164)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Packersavg 19¢	$24.04	$34.79	+$3.16	53% 11512-10014 (21526)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Panthersavg 91¢	$27.94	$22.26	-$5.68	54% 10577-9177 (19754)

HomeRunHazard

Panthers

Invested

$27,872

Value

$25.4K

PnL

-$184.51

Record

54%

17021-14267 (31288)

VeryLucky888

Panthers

Invested

$11,950

Value

$10.9K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

58%

41344-29975 (71319)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Panthers

Invested

$8,575.32

Value

$8.8K

PnL

+$243.27

Record

50%

2488-2472 (4960)

hi774c

Panthers

Invested

$9,294.9

Value

$8.4K

PnL

-$405.74

Record

52%

4694-4412 (9106)

woshikd99

Panthers

Invested

$7,090.19

Value

$6.5K

PnL

-$597.09

Record

54%

98-83 (181)

Bagwell306

Panthers

Invested

$3,950

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$325

Record

59%

4031-2851 (6882)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Panthers

Invested

$2,960

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$277.5

Record

54%

4831-4067 (8898)

Anon455ARB<$100

Panthers

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

2802-2223 (5025)

Both legs:

Panthers$2,00080¢-$187.5

Packers$50020¢+$187.5

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Packers

Invested

$400

Value

$550

PnL

+$150

Record

53%

363-319 (682)

slimjoe<$100

Panthers

Invested

$70.31

Value

$64.52

PnL

-$5.79

Record

51%

6472-6142 (12614)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Panthers

Invested

$52.8

Value

$47.85

PnL

-$4.95

Record

58%

28294-20870 (49164)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Packers

Invested

$24.04

Value

$34.79

PnL

+$3.16

Record

53%

11512-10014 (21526)

justaluckydude<$100

Panthers

Invested

$27.94

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$5.68

Record

54%

10577-9177 (19754)

Research grade

NeutralPanthers at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Panthers

10 of 12 top traders (83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Panthers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whalePanthers 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrPanthers 78% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedPanthers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Panthers 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Panthers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.