Spread: Packers (-10.5)
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Panthers (88%) · Panthers at 74¢ · $30K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Panthers
8
Panthers 88%
$29.8K
-$196.42
75¢ → 73.5¢
-2% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralPanthers at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Panthersavg 75¢ | $9.6K | $9.5K | -$59.42 | 54% 17016-14265 (31281) |
BA Bagwell306 | Panthersavg 75¢ | $7.5K | $7.5K | -$50 | 59% 4031-2851 (6882) |
 VeryLucky888 | Panthersavg 75¢ | $7.5K | $7.5K | -$50 | 58% 41297-29942 (71239) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Panthersavg 75¢ | $3.0K | $3.0K | -$20 | 54% 4827-4066 (8893) |
WO woshikd99 | Panthersavg 75¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | -$15.39 | 54% 98-83 (181) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Panthersavg 75¢ | $69.75 | $68.36 | -$1.39 | 51% 6472-6142 (12614) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Panthersavg 75¢ | $39 | $38.22 | -$0.78 | 58% 28272-20850 (49122) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Packersavg 26¢ | $28.82 | $29.38 | +$0.56 | 50% 6908-6896 (13804) |
Invested
$9,594.87
Value
$9.5K
PnL
-$59.42
Record
54%
17016-14265 (31281)
Invested
$7,500
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$50
Record
59%
4031-2851 (6882)
VeryLucky888Invested
$7,500
Value
$7.5K
PnL
-$50
Record
58%
41297-29942 (71239)
Invested
$3,000
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$20
Record
54%
4827-4066 (8893)
Invested
$2,307.75
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$15.39
Record
54%
98-83 (181)
Invested
$69.75
Value
$68.36
PnL
-$1.39
Record
51%
6472-6142 (12614)
Invested
$39
Value
$38.22
PnL
-$0.78
Record
58%
28272-20850 (49122)
Invested
$28.82
Value
$29.38
PnL
+$0.56
Record
50%
6908-6896 (13804)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.