Spread: Panthers (-2.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (50%) · Packers at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Packers
6
Packers 50%
$1.9K
-$190.88
67¢ → 97.8¢
+46% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPackers at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN Anon455 | Packersavg 67¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$174.75 | 56% 2793-2215 (5008) |
BO BoomLaLa | Packersavg 67¢ | $167.5 | $150 | -$17.5 | 53% 11512-10014 (21526) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Panthersavg 37¢ | $60.64 | $65.56 | +$4.92 | 46% 1041-1242 (2283) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Packersavg 67¢ | $28.81 | $25.8 | -$3.01 | 58% 28272-20850 (49122) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Panthersavg 14.9¢ | $5.27 | $4.76 | -$0.51 | 54% 56110-48247 (104357) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Panthersavg 2.6¢ | $0.39 | $0.36 | -$0.03 | 57% 13416-10256 (23672) |
Invested
$1,788.87
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$174.75
Record
56%
2793-2215 (5008)
Invested
$167.5
Value
$150
PnL
-$17.5
Record
53%
11512-10014 (21526)
Invested
$60.64
Value
$65.56
PnL
+$4.92
Record
46%
1041-1242 (2283)
Invested
$28.81
Value
$25.8
PnL
-$3.01
Record
58%
28272-20850 (49122)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$5.27
Value
$4.76
PnL
-$0.51
Record
54%
56110-48247 (104357)
Invested
$0.39
Value
$0.36
PnL
-$0.03
Record
57%
13416-10256 (23672)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.