Panthers vs. Packers
7 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Packers (100%) · Packers at 64¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Packers
7
Packers 100%
$4.7K
$1.61
63.9¢ → 63.5¢
-1% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralPackers at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 7 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Packers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Packersavg 64¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$11.81 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
LI lissartter | Packersavg 64¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$0 | 42% 5202-7132 (12334) |
TE testingout123 | Packersavg 64¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$8.09 | — 2-0 (2) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Packersavg 64¢ | $816.66 | $816.66 | -$6.38 | 65% 1692-913 (2605) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Packersavg 64¢ | $34.56 | $34.56 | +$0 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | Packersavg 56¢ | $25.45 | $29.09 | +$3.86 | 53% 11512-10013 (21525) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Packersavg 61¢ | $10.14 | $10.55 | +$0.41 | 38% 365-593 (958) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,511.79
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$11.81
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$1,280
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
5202-7132 (12334)
Invested
$1,035.4
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$8.09
Record
—
2-0 (2)
Invested
$816.66
Value
$816.66
PnL
-$6.38
Record
65%
1692-913 (2605)
Invested
$34.56
Value
$34.56
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$25.45
Value
$29.09
PnL
+$3.86
Record
53%
11512-10013 (21525)
Invested
$10.14
Value
$10.55
PnL
+$0.41
Record
38%
365-593 (958)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.