Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Jets, while the market favors Bills (52%). 12 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Bills (-9.5)

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Jets (71%) · Jets at 49¢ · $30K held · ended Nov 15

Bills52¢Jets48¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Jets

Consensus Traders

Jets 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$30.2K

Combined PnL

$280.3

Smart Money Entry

54.5¢ → 48.5¢

-11% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralJets at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills52%

Jets49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills5 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares26,904

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Jets12 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares31,499

Combined PnL$-1.4K

Bills — 29%Jets — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (17 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleBills 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrJets 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 71% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Billsavg 45¢	$6.9K	$7.8K	+$917.4	50% 748-738 (1486)
AltMind	Billsavg 46¢	$5.3K	$6.0K	+$747.82	—
SA SaylorMoonCTR	Jetsavg 55¢	$4.1K	$3.7K	-$375	11% 8-62 (70)
0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR	Jetsavg 55¢	$4.1K	$3.7K	-$375	59% 1150-796 (1946)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Jetsavg 54¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$165.85	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
AN Anon455CTR	Jetsavg 54¢	$2.1K	$2.0K	-$89.88	49% 486-502 (988)
38 38791873984189CTR	Jetsavg 54¢	$4.1K	$1.7K	-$130.86	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Jetsavg 54¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$95.28	50% 658-658 (1316)
0xheavy888CTR	Jetsavg 54¢	$607.5	$562.5	-$45	56% 679-534 (1213)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Jetsavg 55¢	$456	$393.82	-$62.18	30% 495-1136 (1631)
GA gagarin59CTR	Jetsavg 54¢	$305.25	$282.64	-$22.61	44% 100-127 (227)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 54¢	$276.78	$256.28	-$20.5	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Billsavg 51.2¢	$240.16	$229	-$11.16	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 51.2¢	$132.16	$129	-$3.16
└ Jets leg	Jetsavg 54¢	$108	$100	-$8
PR primmCTR<$100	Jetsavg 49¢	$98	$95	-$3	59% 1183-828 (2011)
PA Pan9X<$100	Billsavg 48.4¢	$64.29	$50.67	+$1.7	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Jetsavg 54¢	$27	$25	-$2	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100	Billsavg 41¢	$2.68	$3.26	+$0.59	51% 572-546 (1118)
RN1<$100	Billsavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.5	-$0.05	54% 6042-5119 (11161)

nigiri99

Bills

Invested

$6,880.5

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$917.4

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

AltMind

Bills

Invested

$5,292.3

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$747.82

Record

—

SaylorMoonCTR

Jets

Invested

$4,124.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$375

Record

11%

8-62 (70)

0x448861155279dbf833d041b963e3ac854599e319CTR

Jets

Invested

$4,124.99

Value

$3.7K

PnL

-$375

Record

59%

1150-796 (1946)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Jets

Invested

$2,238.93

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$165.85

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Anon455CTR

Jets

Invested

$2,087.31

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$89.88

Record

49%

486-502 (988)

38791873984189CTR

Jets

Invested

$4,098.41

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$130.86

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

justaluckydudeCTR

Jets

Invested

$1,286.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$95.28

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

0xheavy888CTR

Jets

Invested

$607.5

Value

$562.5

PnL

-$45

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Jets

Invested

$456

Value

$393.82

PnL

-$62.18

Record

30%

495-1136 (1631)

gagarin59CTR

Jets

Invested

$305.25

Value

$282.64

PnL

-$22.61

Record

44%

100-127 (227)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$276.78

Value

$256.28

PnL

-$20.5

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Bills

Invested

$240.16

Value

$229

PnL

-$11.16

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

Both legs:

Bills$132.1651.2¢-$3.16

Jets$10854¢-$8

primmCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$98

Value

$95

PnL

-$3

Record

59%

1183-828 (2011)

Pan9X<$100

Bills

Invested

$64.29

Value

$50.67

PnL

+$1.7

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$27

Value

$25

PnL

-$2

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375<$100

Bills

Invested

$2.68

Value

$3.26

PnL

+$0.59

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

RN1<$100

Bills

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.5

PnL

-$0.05

Record

54%

6042-5119 (11161)

Research grade

NeutralJets at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Jets

12 of 17 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+28 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 46%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

71% of non-arb traders are on Jets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 46% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (17 on Jets) disagree here.

whaleBills 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrJets 82% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Jets 71% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Jets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.