Spread: Bills (-6.5)

9 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (60%) · Bills at 66¢ · $52K held · ended Nov 15

Bills66¢Jets34¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 60%

Total Value

$52.1K

Combined PnL

-$811.88

Smart Money Entry

58¢ → 65.5¢

+13% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills66%

Jets35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills9 traders

Total Value$36.2K

Total Shares57,357

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Jets6 traders

Total Value$15.9K

Total Shares46,811

Combined PnL$-3.8K

Bills — 60%Jets — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jets) and the top 1000 (14 on Bills) disagree here.

whaleBills 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bills 64% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PU purplegatto	Billsavg 58¢	$18.8K	$20.9K	+$2.1K	68% 2679-1267 (3946)
nigiri99	Billsavg 58¢	$9.5K	$10.6K	+$1.1K	50% 748-738 (1486)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 42¢	$13.2K	$10.5K	$-2.7K	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
VeryLucky888CTR	Jetsavg 42¢	$4.2K	$3.4K	-$849.32	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
0X 0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516	Billsavg 58¢	$3.5K	$3.2K	-$300	65% 22-12 (34)
VE VenusianCTR	Jetsavg 43¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$131.76	38% 1374-2228 (3602)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Billsavg 58.9¢	$472	$516.9	+$44.9	30% 495-1136 (1631)
DA darkumbreon88	Billsavg 58¢	$545.68	$498.64	-$47.04	62% 1085-679 (1764)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Jetsavg 40.7¢	$431.21	$376.3	-$54.91	51% 572-546 (1118)
38 38791873984189	Billsavg 57¢	$2.4K	$370.6	+$86.03	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Jetsavg 42¢	$379.68	$302.84	-$76.84	48% 490-523 (1013)
65 6512395314597884	Billsavg 53¢	$106	$133	+$27	50% 4049-4056 (8105)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Jetsavg 42¢	$47.04	$37.52	-$9.52	56% 679-534 (1213)
NO NotJump<$100	Billsavg 58¢	$29	$33.25	+$4.25	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
PA Pan9X<$100	Billsavg 57¢	$27.29	$25.41	-$1.88	50% 2197-2203 (4400)

purplegatto

Bills

Invested

$18,794.32

Value

$20.9K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

68%

2679-1267 (3946)

nigiri99

Bills

Invested

$9,489.38

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$13,205.35

Value

$10.5K

PnL

$-2.7K

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

VeryLucky888CTR

Jets

Invested

$4,214.23

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$849.32

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

0x241ADda58eD48866f0dEeC7867731dD84c5BA9C8-1763470351516

Bills

Invested

$3,480

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$300

Record

65%

22-12 (34)

VenusianCTR

Jets

Invested

$1,416.37

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$131.76

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Bills

Invested

$472

Value

$516.9

PnL

+$44.9

Record

30%

495-1136 (1631)

darkumbreon88

Bills

Invested

$545.68

Value

$498.64

PnL

-$47.04

Record

62%

1085-679 (1764)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Jets

Invested

$431.21

Value

$376.3

PnL

-$54.91

Record

51%

572-546 (1118)

38791873984189

Bills

Invested

$2,365.39

Value

$370.6

PnL

+$86.03

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Jets

Invested

$379.68

Value

$302.84

PnL

-$76.84

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

6512395314597884

Bills

Invested

$106

Value

$133

PnL

+$27

Record

50%

4049-4056 (8105)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$47.04

Value

$37.52

PnL

-$9.52

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

NotJump<$100

Bills

Invested

$29

Value

$33.25

PnL

+$4.25

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

Pan9X<$100

Bills

Invested

$27.29

Value

$25.41

PnL

-$1.88

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

9 of 15 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Mature

27h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Jets) and the top 1000 (14 on Bills) disagree here.

whaleBills 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrJets 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedJets 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bills 64% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.