Spread: Bills (-3.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Bills (50%) · Bills at 73¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Bills73¢Jets27¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Bills

Consensus Traders

Bills 50%

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

-$13.05

Smart Money Entry

66¢ → 72.5¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralBills at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills73%

Jets28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bills4 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares7,518

Combined PnL+$78.66

Jets4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares8,812

Combined PnL-$91.71

Bills — 50%Jets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBills 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Billsavg 66¢	$4.8K	$4.9K	+$72.67	60% 533-362 (895)
TA takeormakeCTR	Jetsavg 34¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$87.54	57% 3682-2769 (6451)
OD Oddstorm	Billsavg 65¢	$142.33	$146.71	+$4.38	36% 140-253 (393)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Billsavg 67¢	$16.08	$17.52	+$1.44	50% 658-658 (1316)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100	Jetsavg 34¢	$10.3	$7.73	-$2.58	11% 29-224 (253)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Billsavg 65¢	$5.61	$5.78	+$0.17	48% 490-523 (1013)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Jetsavg 33¢	$6.27	$4.85	-$1.42	50% 2197-2203 (4400)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Jetsavg 35¢	$3.02	$2.85	-$0.17	38% 1374-2228 (3602)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Bills

Invested

$4,796.04

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$72.67

Record

60%

533-362 (895)

takeormakeCTR

Jets

Invested

$2,976.31

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$87.54

Record

57%

3682-2769 (6451)

Oddstorm

Bills

Invested

$142.33

Value

$146.71

PnL

+$4.38

Record

36%

140-253 (393)

justaluckydude<$100

Bills

Invested

$16.08

Value

$17.52

PnL

+$1.44

Record

50%

658-658 (1316)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$10.3

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$2.58

Record

11%

29-224 (253)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Bills

Invested

$5.61

Value

$5.78

PnL

+$0.17

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$6.27

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$1.42

Record

50%

2197-2203 (4400)

VenusianCTR<$100

Jets

Invested

$3.02

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.17

Record

38%

1374-2228 (3602)

Research grade

NeutralBills at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Bills

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Bills. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleJets 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrBills 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Bills 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Bills wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.