Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 52.5

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 95¢ · $107K held · ended Nov 10

Over5¢Under95¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

Total Value

$106.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

70.8¢ → 95¢

+34% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over5%

Under95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under12 traders

Total Value$80.8K

Total Shares104,921

Combined PnL+$6.4K

Over2 traders

Total Value$26.0K

Total Shares113,269

Combined PnL$-7.7K

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 85% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 71¢	$36.0K	$39.1K	+$3.3K	42% 29-40 (69)
0X 0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR	Overavg 29.3¢	$33.1K	$26.0K	$-7.7K	1% 1-81 (82)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 70.5¢	$18.0K	$19.7K	+$1.7K	30% 29-67 (96)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Underavg 70.5¢	$7.8K	$8.6K	+$722.83	6% 7-120 (127)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	Underavg 71¢	$5.0K	$5.5K	+$460.25	0% 1-224 (225)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 70.3¢	$4.8K	$5.3K	+$221.19	52% 106-98 (204)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 70.7¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$1.89	50% 405-412 (817)
NM NM-P	Underavg 70¢	$350	$385	+$35	11% 21-175 (196)
GC GC-P	Underavg 70¢	$350	$385	+$35	7% 16-198 (214)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 70¢	$280	$308	-$14	6% 27-418 (445)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 68.2¢	$34.1	$38.5	+$4.4	30% 54-125 (179)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 34.8¢	$70.3	$27.31	-$42.99	53% 274-241 (515)
HI hi774c<$100	Underavg 69¢	$21.95	$24.49	+$2.54	3% 9-250 (259)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 71¢	$10.95	$11.78	+$0.83	49% 183-194 (377)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$36,038.89

Value

$39.1K

PnL

+$3.3K

Record

42%

29-40 (69)

0xBc43c8bfBC4d77c2FC9011adaD38Ba43b88996d3-1765231687816CTR

Over

Invested

$33,093.37

Value

$26.0K

PnL

$-7.7K

Record

1-81 (82)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$18,016.91

Value

$19.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Under

Invested

$7,842.74

Value

$8.6K

PnL

+$722.83

Record

7-120 (127)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

Under

Invested

$5,027.22

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$460.25

Record

1-224 (225)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$4,811.72

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$221.19

Record

52%

106-98 (204)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$1,676.07

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$1.89

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$385

PnL

+$35

Record

11%

21-175 (196)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$350

Value

$385

PnL

+$35

Record

16-198 (214)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$280

Value

$308

PnL

-$14

Record

27-418 (445)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$34.1

Value

$38.5

PnL

+$4.4

Record

30%

54-125 (179)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.3

Value

$27.31

PnL

-$42.99

Record

53%

274-241 (515)

hi774c<$100

Under

Invested

$21.95

Value

$24.49

PnL

+$2.54

Record

9-250 (259)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$10.95

Value

$11.78

PnL

+$0.83

Record

49%

183-194 (377)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 95%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 73%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 89% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 85% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.2%

95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.