Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Bills vs. Vikings: O/U 46.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (44%) · Over at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 10

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$9.06

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 44.5¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$945.47

Total Shares2,137

Combined PnL-$11.86

Under5 traders

Total Value$359.47

Total Shares638

Combined PnL+$2.8

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$863.15	$786.52	-$15.55	48% 72263-78012 (150275)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$634.38	$628.32	-$8.23
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.5¢	$165.34	$158.2	-$7.32
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 44.7¢	$541.97	$539.08	-$2.9	45% 2826-3461 (6287)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 45.7¢	$237.86	$231.4	-$6.46	54% 5399-4609 (10008)
NM NM-P	Underavg 55¢	$151.5	$153	+$1.49	57% 22821-16910 (39731)
GC GC-P	Underavg 55¢	$137.5	$138.75	+$1.25	57% 22672-16911 (39583)
BO BoomLaLaCTR	Overavg 44.7¢	$118.19	$113.66	-$3.21	53% 14451-12738 (27189)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 43¢	$60.63	$61.34	+$0.71	46% 2861-3344 (6205)
HE Herdonia<$100	Underavg 57¢	$45.12	$45.53	+$0.4	50% 4179-4245 (8424)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 56.5¢	$16.95	$16.65	-$0.3	53% 28430-25699 (54129)
RL RLWG<$100	Underavg 56¢	$5.6	$5.55	-$0.05	50% 8680-8849 (17529)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$863.15

Value

$786.52

PnL

-$15.55

Record

48%

72263-78012 (150275)

Both legs:

Under$634.3856¢-$8.23

Over$165.3446.5¢-$7.32

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$541.97

Value

$539.08

PnL

-$2.9

Record

45%

2826-3461 (6287)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$237.86

Value

$231.4

PnL

-$6.46

Record

54%

5399-4609 (10008)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$151.5

Value

$153

PnL

+$1.49

Record

57%

22821-16910 (39731)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$137.5

Value

$138.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

57%

22672-16911 (39583)

BoomLaLaCTR

Over

Invested

$118.19

Value

$113.66

PnL

-$3.21

Record

53%

14451-12738 (27189)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.63

Value

$61.34

PnL

+$0.71

Record

46%

2861-3344 (6205)

Herdonia<$100

Under

Invested

$45.12

Value

$45.53

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

4179-4245 (8424)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$16.95

Value

$16.65

PnL

-$0.3

Record

53%

28430-25699 (54129)

RLWG<$100

Under

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

8680-8849 (17529)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrOver 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.