Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Vikings, while the market favors Bills (76%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Vikings (-3.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (75%) · Vikings at 25¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 10

Vikings25¢Bills75¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$11.57

Smart Money Entry

24.9¢ → 24.5¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidVikings at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Vikings25%

Bills76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings6 traders

Total Value$638.96

Total Shares2,608

Combined PnL-$7.2

Bills2 traders

Total Value$458.19

Total Shares505

Combined PnL-$4.37

Vikings — 75%Bills — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (8 on Vikings) disagree here.

ctrVikings 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Vikingsavg 25¢	$505.25	$495.15	-$10.11	42% 28-38 (66)
HO HomeRunHazard	Billsavg 76¢	$458.72	$454.33	-$4.39	30% 29-67 (96)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Vikingsavg 24¢	$114.83	$117.19	+$2.37	49% 388-405 (793)
└ Vikings leg	Vikingsavg 24¢	$71.21	$72.69	+$1.48
└ Bills leg	Billsavg 74¢	$43.62	$44.5	+$0.88
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 24¢	$57.5	$61.25	+$3.75	10% 11-104 (115)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 25¢	$56.25	$55.13	-$1.13	6% 11-164 (175)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 24¢	$12	$12.25	+$0.25	19% 43-182 (225)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 25¢	$8.5	$8.33	+$0.17	5% 11-190 (201)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Vikingsavg 25¢	$7	$6.86	-$0.14	48% 174-190 (364)
VeryLucky888<$100	Billsavg 74¢	$3.83	$3.86	+$0.03	48% 61-65 (126)

nigiri99CTR

Vikings

Invested

$505.25

Value

$495.15

PnL

-$10.11

Record

42%

28-38 (66)

HomeRunHazard

Bills

Invested

$458.72

Value

$454.33

PnL

-$4.39

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Vikings

Invested

$114.83

Value

$117.19

PnL

+$2.37

Record

49%

388-405 (793)

Both legs:

Vikings$71.2124¢+$1.48

Bills$43.6274¢+$0.88

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$57.5

Value

$61.25

PnL

+$3.75

Record

10%

11-104 (115)

NM-PCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$56.25

Value

$55.13

PnL

-$1.13

Record

11-164 (175)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$12

Value

$12.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

19%

43-182 (225)

GC-PCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.33

PnL

+$0.17

Record

11-190 (201)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Vikings

Invested

Value

$6.86

PnL

-$0.14

Record

48%

174-190 (364)

VeryLucky888<$100

Bills

Invested

$3.83

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$0.03

Record

48%

61-65 (126)

Research grade

AvoidVikings at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Bills 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Mature

17h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (8 on Vikings) disagree here.

ctrVikings 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.