Spread: Bills (-9.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Vikings (50%) · Vikings at 75¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 10

Bills25¢Vikings75¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Vikings

Consensus Traders

Vikings 50%

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$32.7

Smart Money Entry

72.6¢ → 75¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bills25%

Vikings75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vikings6 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares7,681

Combined PnL-$89.02

Bills6 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares5,524

Combined PnL+$121.71

Vikings — 50%Bills — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (12 on Vikings) disagree here.

sharpBills 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 50% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Vikingsavg 70¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$41.99	57% 104-80 (184)
CUTJALENHURTS	Vikingsavg 79¢	$2.1K	$1.9K	-$195.6	2% 8-332 (340)
JU justaluckydude	Vikingsavg 65.9¢	$727.24	$800.4	+$73.16	26% 55-158 (213)
AN Anon455	Vikingsavg 71¢	$764.94	$798.11	+$33.17	48% 86-95 (181)
TA takeormakeCTR	Billsavg 30¢	$839.7	$769.73	-$69.98	22% 84-295 (379)
RN1CTR	Billsavg 21¢	$519.88	$700.58	+$180.7	52% 287-270 (557)
38 38791873984189	Vikingsavg 71¢	$666.14	$127.87	-$43.63	49% 427-449 (876)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Billsavg 21.1¢	$43.2	$58.43	+$15.23	43% 131-176 (307)
CM cm2897<$100	Vikingsavg 68¢	$36.72	$38.61	+$1.89	47% 428-476 (904)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Billsavg 34.3¢	$22.71	$19.28	-$3.48	49% 193-198 (391)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Billsavg 29¢	$15.37	$14.6	-$0.77	26% 127-363 (490)
SI Siddhartha1CTR<$100	Billsavg 28¢	$0.51	$0.52	+$0.01	55% 63-51 (114)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Vikings

Invested

$1,959.3

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$41.99

Record

57%

104-80 (184)

CUTJALENHURTS

Vikings

Invested

$2,060.32

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$195.6

Record

8-332 (340)

justaluckydude

Vikings

Invested

$727.24

Value

$800.4

PnL

+$73.16

Record

26%

55-158 (213)

Anon455

Vikings

Invested

$764.94

Value

$798.11

PnL

+$33.17

Record

48%

86-95 (181)

takeormakeCTR

Bills

Invested

$839.7

Value

$769.73

PnL

-$69.98

Record

22%

84-295 (379)

RN1CTR

Bills

Invested

$519.88

Value

$700.58

PnL

+$180.7

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

38791873984189

Vikings

Invested

$666.14

Value

$127.87

PnL

-$43.63

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$43.2

Value

$58.43

PnL

+$15.23

Record

43%

131-176 (307)

cm2897<$100

Vikings

Invested

$36.72

Value

$38.61

PnL

+$1.89

Record

47%

428-476 (904)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$22.71

Value

$19.28

PnL

-$3.48

Record

49%

193-198 (391)

LimousinCTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$15.37

Value

$14.6

PnL

-$0.77

Record

26%

127-363 (490)

Siddhartha1CTR<$100

Bills

Invested

$0.51

Value

$0.52

PnL

+$0.01

Record

55%

63-51 (114)

Research grade

NeutralVikings at 75%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Vikings

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Vikings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Bills) and the top 1000 (12 on Vikings) disagree here.

sharpBills 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrVikings 50% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedBills 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Vikings 50% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Vikings wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.